7 research outputs found

    A METHODOLOGY FOR AUTONOMOUS ROOF BOLT INSTALLATION USING INDUSTRIAL ROBOTICS

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    The mining sector is currently in the stage of adopting more automation, and with it, robotics. Autonomous bolting in underground environments remains a hot topic for the mining industry. Roof bolter operators are exposed to hazardous conditions due to their proximity to the unsupported roof, loose bolts, and heavy spinning mass. Prolonged exposure to the risk inevitably leads to accidents and injuries. The current thesis presents the development of a robotic assembly capable of carrying out the entire sequence of roof bolting operations in full and partial autonomous sensor-driven rock bolting operations to achieve a high-impact health and safety intervention for equipment operators. The automation of a complete cycle of drill steel positioning, drilling, bolt orientation and placement, resin placement, and bolt securing is discussed using an anthropomorphic robotic arm.A human-computer interface is developed to enable the interaction of the operators with the machines. Collision detection techniques will have to be implemented to minimize the impact after an unexpected collision has occurred. A robust failure-detection protocol is developed to check the vital parameters of robot operations continuously. This unique approach to automation of small materials handling is described with lessons learned. A user-centered GUI has been developed that allows for a human user to control and monitor the autonomous roof bolter. Preliminary tests have been conducted in a mock mine to evaluate the developed system\u27s performance. In addition, a number of different scenarios simulating typical missions that a roof bolter needs to undertake in an underground coal mine were tested

    Well-promising outcomes with vacuum-assisted closure in an infected wound following laparotomy: A case report

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    Introducation: Negative pressure wound therapy (NPWT) represents an alternative method to optimize conditions for wound healing. Delayed wound closure is a significant health problem, which is directly associated with pain and suffering from patient's aspect, as well with social and financial burden. Presentation of case: We report a case of vacuum-assisted wound therapy with hypertonic solution distillation and continuous negative pressure application, in an infected wound after laparotomy for incisional hernia reconstruction with mesh placement. Negative pressure was initiated at the wound margins after failure of conventional treatment with great outcomes, achieving a total closure of the incision within two weeks. Discussion: Each wound has particular characteristics which must be managed. Vacuum assisted closure (VAC) with continuous negative pressure and simultaneous wound instillation and cleanse can provide optimum results, reducing the cavity volume, by newly produced granulated tissue. Conclusion: The simultaneous use of instillation and constant pressure seemed to be superior in comparison with NPWT alone. Compared to conventional methods, the use of VAC ends to better outcomes, in cases of infected wounds following laparotomy

    Pediatric trauma and emergency surgery: an international cross-sectional survey among WSES members

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    Background: In contrast to adults, the situation for pediatric trauma care from an international point of view and the global management of severely injured children remain rather unclear. The current study investigates structural management of pediatric trauma in centers of different trauma levels as well as experiences with pediatric trauma management around the world. Methods: A web-survey had been distributed to the global mailing list of the World Society of Emergency Surgery from 10/2021-03/2022, investigating characteristics of respondents and affiliated hospitals, case-load of pediatric trauma patients, capacities and infrastructure for critical care in children, trauma team composition, clinical work-up and individual experiences with pediatric trauma management in response to patientsÂŽ age. The collaboration group was subdivided regarding sizes of affiliated hospitals to allow comparisons concerning hospital volumes. Comparable results were conducted to statistical analysis. Results: A total of 133 participants from 34 countries, i.e. 5 continents responded to the survey. They were most commonly affiliated with larger hospitals (> 500 beds in 72.9%) and with level I or II trauma centers (82.0%), respectively. 74.4% of hospitals offer unrestricted pediatric medical care, but only 63.2% and 42.9% of the participants had sufficient experiences with trauma care in children ≀ 10 and ≀ 5 years of age (p = 0.0014). This situation is aggravated in participants from smaller hospitals (p < 0.01). With regard to hospital size (≀ 500 versus > 500 in-hospital beds), larger hospitals were more likely affiliated with advanced trauma centers, more elaborated pediatric intensive care infrastructure (p < 0.0001), treated children at all ages more frequently (p = 0.0938) and have higher case-loads of severely injured children < 12 years of age (p = 0.0009). Therefore, the majority of larger hospitals reserve either pediatric surgery departments or board-certified pediatric surgeons (p < 0.0001) and in-hospital trauma management is conducted more multi-disciplinarily. However, the majority of respondents does not feel prepared for treatment of severe pediatric trauma and call for special educational and practical training courses (overall: 80.2% and 64.3%, respectively). Conclusions: Multi-professional management of pediatric trauma and individual experiences with severely injured children depend on volumes, level of trauma centers and infrastructure of the hospital. However, respondents from hospitals at all levels of trauma care complain about an alarming lack of knowledge on pediatric trauma management

    Reducing the environmental impact of surgery on a global scale: systematic review and co-prioritization with healthcare workers in 132 countries

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    Abstract Background Healthcare cannot achieve net-zero carbon without addressing operating theatres. The aim of this study was to prioritize feasible interventions to reduce the environmental impact of operating theatres. Methods This study adopted a four-phase Delphi consensus co-prioritization methodology. In phase 1, a systematic review of published interventions and global consultation of perioperative healthcare professionals were used to longlist interventions. In phase 2, iterative thematic analysis consolidated comparable interventions into a shortlist. In phase 3, the shortlist was co-prioritized based on patient and clinician views on acceptability, feasibility, and safety. In phase 4, ranked lists of interventions were presented by their relevance to high-income countries and low–middle-income countries. Results In phase 1, 43 interventions were identified, which had low uptake in practice according to 3042 professionals globally. In phase 2, a shortlist of 15 intervention domains was generated. In phase 3, interventions were deemed acceptable for more than 90 per cent of patients except for reducing general anaesthesia (84 per cent) and re-sterilization of ‘single-use’ consumables (86 per cent). In phase 4, the top three shortlisted interventions for high-income countries were: introducing recycling; reducing use of anaesthetic gases; and appropriate clinical waste processing. In phase 4, the top three shortlisted interventions for low–middle-income countries were: introducing reusable surgical devices; reducing use of consumables; and reducing the use of general anaesthesia. Conclusion This is a step toward environmentally sustainable operating environments with actionable interventions applicable to both high– and low–middle–income countries

    Η ΀έχΜη ως ΔΜαλλαÎșτÎčÎșό ÎŒÎ­ÏƒÎż ÎžÎ”ÏÎ±Ï€Î”ÎŻÎ±Ï‚ στηΜ Î±Ï€ÎżÎșÎ±Ï„ÎŹÏƒÏ„Î±ÏƒÎ·, τηΜ ψυχÎčÎșÎź Ï…ÎłÎ”ÎŻÎ± ÎșαÎč τηΜ Ï€ÎżÎčότητα Î¶Ï‰ÎźÏ‚ τωΜ ατόΌωΜ ΌΔ Î±ÎœÎ±Ï€Î·ÏÎŻÎ±.

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    Η ÎžÎ”ÏÎ±Ï€Î”ÎŻÎ± Όέσω της τέχΜης Î”ÎŻÎœÎ±Îč ÎŒÎčα Î±Ï€ÎżÏ„Î”Î»Î”ÏƒÎŒÎ±Ï„ÎčÎșÎź ÎŒÎ­ÎžÎżÎŽÎżÏ‚ παρέΌÎČασης ÎłÎčα ÎŹÏ„ÎżÎŒÎ± Ï€ÎżÏ… αΜτÎčÎŒÎ”Ï„Ï‰Ï€ÎŻÎ¶ÎżÏ…Îœ αΜαπτυΟÎčαÎșές, ÎœÎ”Ï…ÏÎżÎ»ÎżÎłÎčÎșές, ΔÎșπαÎčΎΔυτÎčÎșές, ÎșÎżÎčΜωΜÎčÎșές Îź ÏˆÏ…Ï‡ÎżÎ»ÎżÎłÎčÎșές ΎυσλΔÎčÏ„ÎżÏ…ÏÎłÎŻÎ”Ï‚. ÎŁÏÎŒÏ†Ï‰ÎœÎ± ΌΔ Î±Ï…Ï„Îź τη ÎŒÎ­ÎžÎżÎŽÎż ΎΔΜ απαÎčÏ„Î”ÎŻÏ„Î±Îč η Î»ÎźÏˆÎ· φαρΌαÎșΔυτÎčÎșÎźÏ‚ Î±ÎłÏ‰ÎłÎźÏ‚ ÎșαÎč έχΔÎč ως ÏƒÏ„ÏŒÏ‡Îż ÎșαÎč σÎșÎżÏ€ÏŒ Μα ÎșÎ±ÎžÏ…ÏƒÏ„Î”ÏÎźÏƒÎ”Îč τηΜ ΔπÎčÎŽÎ”ÎŻÎœÏ‰ÏƒÎ· τωΜ ÏŒÏ€ÎżÎčωΜ ασΞΔΜΔÎčώΜ ÎșαÎč ÏƒÏ…ÎłÏ‡ÏÏŒÎœÏ‰Ï‚ Μα ÎČΔλτÎčώσΔÎč, ÏƒÏ„Îż ÎČαΞΌό Ï€ÎżÏ… αυτό Î”ÎŻÎœÎ±Îč ΔφÎčÎșτό, τηΜ ÏˆÏ…Ï‡ÎżÎ»ÎżÎłÎčÎșÎź Î”Ï…ÎŒÎŹÏÎ”Îčα τωΜ ασΞΔΜώΜ. ÎŁÎșÎżÏ€ÏŒÏ‚ της Ï€Î±ÏÎżÏÏƒÎ±Ï‚ Î”ÏÎłÎ±ÏƒÎŻÎ±Ï‚ ÎźÏ„Î±Îœ Μα ÎŽÎčÎ”ÏÎ”Ï…ÎœÎźÏƒÎ”Îč τηΜ Î”Ï€ÎŻÎŽÏÎ±ÏƒÎ·, Ï€ÎżÏ… έχΔÎč η τέχΜη στηΜ ψυχÎčÎșÎź Ï…ÎłÎ”ÎŻÎ±, στηΜ Î±Ï€ÎżÎșÎ±Ï„ÎŹÏƒÏ„Î±ÏƒÎ· ÎșαÎč τηΜ Ï€ÎżÎčότητα Î¶Ï‰ÎźÏ‚ τωΜ ατόΌωΜ ΌΔ Î±ÎœÎ±Ï€Î·ÏÎŻÎ±. ΓÎčα Ï„Îż σÎșÎżÏ€ÏŒ αυτό Ï€ÏÎ±ÎłÎŒÎ±Ï„ÎżÏ€ÎżÎčΟΞηÎșΔ ÎČÎčÎČλÎčÎżÎłÏÎ±Ï†ÎčÎșÎź αΜασÎșόπηση τωΜ Ï„Î”Î»Î”Ï…Ï„Î±ÎŻÏ‰Îœ ΔτώΜ από ÎŽÎčÎ±Ï†ÎżÏÎ”Ï„ÎčÎșές ÎČÎŹÏƒÎ”Îčς ÎŽÎ”ÎŽÎżÎŒÎ­ÎœÏ‰Îœ, όπως Pubmed, Science Direct ÎșαÎč Google Scholar, Î±ÎœÎ±Ï†ÎżÏÎčÎșÎŹ ΌΔ ÎŹÏ„ÎżÎŒÎ± Ï€ÎżÏ… Î±ÎœÎźÎșÎżÏ…Îœ ÏƒÏ„Îż Ï†ÎŹÏƒÎŒÎ± Ï„ÎżÏ… αυτÎčÏƒÎŒÎżÏ, ÎŹÏ„ÎżÎŒÎ± ΌΔ ÎœÎżÎ·Ï„ÎčÎșÎź Î±ÎœÎ±Ï€Î·ÏÎŻÎ±, ΌΔ ÎșÎčΜητÎčÎșές Î±ÎœÎ±Ï€Î·ÏÎŻÎ”Ï‚, ΌΔ ΔπÎčÎ»Î·ÏˆÎŻÎ±, ÎŹÏ„ÎżÎŒÎ± Ï€ÎżÏ… Î­Ï‡ÎżÏ…Îœ Ï…Ï€ÎżÏƒÏ„Î”ÎŻ ΔγÎșΔφαλÎčÎșό ΔπΔÎčσόΎÎčÎż, ÎŒÎ”Ï„ÎŹ από τραυΌατÎčσΌό, Î±ÏƒÎžÎ”ÎœÎ”ÎŻÏ‚ ΌΔ ÎŹÎœÎżÎčα, ÎșαΞώς ÎșαÎč ΌΔ ÎŹÏ„ÎżÎŒÎ± Ï€ÎżÏ… Î±ÎœÎźÎșÎżÏ…Îœ στηΜ Ï„ÏÎŻÏ„Î· ηλÎčÎșία. Από τα ÏƒÏ…ÎŒÏ€Î”ÏÎŹÏƒÎŒÎ±Ï„Î± Ï†Î±ÎŻÎœÎ”Ï„Î±Îč, ότÎč η ΔΜασχόληση τωΜ ατόΌωΜ ΌΔ τηΜ τέχΜη έχΔÎč ΞΔτÎčÎșÎź Î”Ï€ÎŻÎŽÏÎ±ÏƒÎ· στη ÎžÎ”ÏÎ±Ï€Î”ÎŻÎ± Ï„ÎżÏ…Ï‚ ÎșαÎč ÏƒÏ„ÎżÎœ Ï„ÏÏŒÏ€Îż αΜτÎčΌΔτώπÎčσης της ασΞέΜΔÎčας ÎșαÎč ÎżÏ€ÎżÎčÎżÎœÎŽÎźÏ€ÎżÏ„Î” ΎυσÎșολÎčώΜ. ÎŁÏ…ÎŒÏ€Î”ÏÎ±ÏƒÎŒÎ±Ï„ÎčÎșÎŹ, η ÎžÎ”ÏÎ±Ï€Î”ÎŻÎ± Όέσω τέχΜης παρέχΔÎč ÎŒÎčα Όη λΔÎșτÎčÎșÎź ÎŒÎżÏÏ†Îź έÎșφρασης Όέσω της ÎŽÎčαÎčσΞητÎčÎșÎźÏ‚ ÎșαταΜόησης ÎșαÎč της ÎżÏ€Ï„ÎčÎșÎźÏ‚ Ï€Î±ÏÎżÏ…ÏƒÎŻÎ±ÏƒÎ·Ï‚, Î±Ï€ÎżÎČÎŹÎ»Î»ÎżÎœÏ„Î±Ï‚ τη ÎŽÏ…ÏƒÏ†ÎżÏÎŻÎ± ÎșαÎč τα αρΜητÎčÎșÎŹ συΜαÎčÏƒÎžÎźÎŒÎ±Ï„Î± τωΜ ασΞΔΜώΜ, συΌÎČÎŹÎ»Î»ÎżÎœÏ„Î±Ï‚ στηΜ ÎșαλύτΔρη Ï€ÎżÎčότητα Î¶Ï‰ÎźÏ‚.ΟΧ

    Î‘ÎœÎŹÎ»Ï…ÏƒÎ· ÎŽÎ”ÎŽÎżÎŒÎ­ÎœÏ‰Îœ από ÎłÎ”Ï‰Ï†Ï…ÏƒÎčÎșές ÎŽÎčÎ±ÎłÏÎ±Ï†ÎŻÎ”Ï‚ ΌΔ Ï‡ÏÎźÏƒÎ· ÎŒÎżÎœÏ„Î­Î»Ï‰Îœ Ï‡ÏÎżÎœÎżÏƒÎ”ÎčρώΜ ÎșαÎč ΌΔΞόΎωΜ ÎłÎ”Ï‰ÏƒÏ„Î±Ï„ÎčστÎčÎșÎźÏ‚

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    Summarization: This thesis focuses on the statistical analysis of well log data from two hydrocarbon reservoirs located in Labrador Island, Western Newfoundland (Canada). The data is obtained from two onshore wells (Finnegan and Seamus). We focus on the analysis of four logs (spontaneous potential, Gamma radiation and two induction logs) from six different formations. The thesis has three main objectives: (i) to estimate the probability distributions and spatial correlations in data obtained from the same well, (ii) to evaluate cross-correlations between logs across the two different wells, and (iii) to explore methods for the reconstruction of missing well log data. With respect to the first objective, the exploratory statistical analysis indicates that the majority of the respective properties do not follow the Gaussian distribution. However, after removing an empirically determined trend function, the residuals are closer to the Gaussian distribution. The spontaneous potential and Gamma radiation indicators can be described by Cauchy and Gumbel distributions, while the induction indicators by means of the Gamma and Weibull distributions. Variogram analysis suggests that spontaneous potential and Gamma Radiation conform to the same type of theoretical variogram model with similar sill and range values. In reference to the second objective, the statistical analysis indicates weak cross correlations between log data measured at the two different wells. The Gamma radiation logs show both positive and negative cross correlations which are overall higher (in magnitude) than for the respective correlations for the other three logs. Regarding the third objective, the comparison of the performance of different imputation, interpolation and time series algorithms for gap filling indicates that linear interpolation, linear weighted moving average and less often the Kalman-ARIMA methods are the top-performing algorithms for well log gap filling.Î Î”ÏÎŻÎ»Î·ÏˆÎ·: Η ΓΔωστατÎčστÎčÎșÎź παρέχΔÎč Î”ÏÎłÎ±Î»Î”ÎŻÎ± στατÎčστÎčÎșÎźÏ‚ Î±ÎœÎŹÎ»Ï…ÏƒÎ·Ï‚ ÎłÎčα τηΜ ΌΔλέτη χωρÎčÎșώΜ Îź Ï‡Ï‰ÏÎżÏ‡ÏÎżÎœÎčÎșώΜ φυσÎčÎșώΜ ΌΔταÎČλητώΜ. Η Ï€ÏÎżÏƒÎ­ÎłÎłÎčση ÎŒÎčας Ï‡Ï‰ÏÎżÏ‡ÏÎżÎœÎčÎșÎźÏ‚ ÎłÎ”Ï‰ÏƒÏ„Î±Ï„ÎčστÎčÎșÎźÏ‚ Î±ÎœÎŹÎ»Ï…ÏƒÎ·Ï‚ σΔ ÎŽÎ”ÎŽÎżÎŒÎ­ÎœÎ± Ï…ÎŽÏÎżÎłÎżÎœÎ±ÎœÎžÏÎŹÎșωΜ τα ÏŒÏ€ÎżÎčα χαραÎșÏ„Î·ÏÎŻÎ¶ÎżÎœÏ„Î±Îč από Î±ÎœÎżÎŒÎżÎčÎżÎłÎ­ÎœÎ”Îčα Î±Ï€ÎżÏ„Î”Î»Î”ÎŻ αΜτÎčÎșÎ”ÎŻÎŒÎ”ÎœÎż έρΔυΜας. Î©ÏƒÏ„ÏŒÏƒÎż, ÎŒÎ­ÎžÎżÎŽÎżÎč Î±ÎœÎŹÎ»Ï…ÏƒÎ·Ï‚ Ï‡ÏÎżÎœÎżÏƒÎ”ÎčρώΜ Ï€ÎżÏ… πΔρÎčλαΌÎČÎŹÎœÎżÏ…Îœ τηΜ Î”Ï€Î”ÎŸÎ”ÏÎłÎ±ÏƒÎŻÎ± ÎŒÎżÎœÎżÎŽÎčÎŹÏƒÏ„Î±Ï„Ï‰Îœ Ï‡ÏÎżÎœÎčÎșώΜ ÎŽÎ”ÎŽÎżÎŒÎ­ÎœÏ‰Îœ, ÎŒÏ€ÎżÏÎżÏÎœ ÎșΏλλÎčστα Μα Î”Ï†Î±ÏÎŒÎżÏƒÏ„ÎżÏÎœ σΔ Ï€ÏÎżÎČÎ»ÎźÎŒÎ±Ï„Î± Ï€ÎżÏ… Î±Ï†ÎżÏÎżÏÎœ ÎŒÎżÎœÎżÎŽÎčÎŹÏƒÏ„Î±Ï„Î± χωρÎčÎșÎŹ ÎŽÎ”ÎŽÎżÎŒÎ­ÎœÎ±, όπως ÎłÎčα Ï€Î±ÏÎŹÎŽÎ”ÎčÎłÎŒÎ± ÎŽÎ”ÎŽÎżÎŒÎ­ÎœÎ± ÎŽÎčÎ±ÎłÏÎ±Ï†ÎčώΜ από ÎłÎ”Ï‰Ï„ÏÎźÏƒÎ”Îčς. Î€ÏŒÏƒÎż η ΔπÎčÏƒÏ„ÎźÎŒÎ· της ΓΔωστατÎčστÎčÎșÎźÏ‚ ÏŒÏƒÎż ÎșαÎč η Î±ÎœÎŹÎ»Ï…ÏƒÎ· Ï‡ÏÎżÎœÎżÏƒÎ”ÎčρώΜ Î”ÎŻÎœÎ±Îč αΜτÎčÎșÎ”ÎŻÎŒÎ”ÎœÎ± ΌΔ ΔρΔυΜητÎčÎșό ΔΜΎÎčÎ±Ï†Î­ÏÎżÎœ ÎșαÎč Î”Ï†Î±ÏÎŒÎżÎłÎ­Ï‚ σΔ Ï€ÎżÎ»Î»ÎŹ ΔπÎčÏƒÏ„Î·ÎŒÎżÎœÎčÎșÎŹ Ï€Î”ÎŽÎŻÎ±, όπως ÏƒÏ„ÎżÎœ Ï„ÎżÎŒÎ­Î± της ΌΔταλλΔυτÎčÎșÎźÏ‚, της ΌηχαΜÎčÎșÎźÏ‚ Ï€Î”Ï„ÏÎ”Î»Î±ÎŻÎżÏ…, σΔ Ï„ÎżÎŒÎ”ÎŻÏ‚ πΔρÎčÎČÎ±Î»Î»ÎżÎœÏ„ÎčÎșώΜ ΔπÎčστηΌώΜ, στη τηλΔπÎčσÎșόπηση ÎșαÎč τηΜ ΔπÎčÏƒÏ„ÎźÎŒÎ· τωΜ υλÎčÎșώΜ. ÎŁÎșÎżÏ€ÏŒÏ‚ της Î”ÏÎłÎ±ÏƒÎŻÎ±Ï‚ Î”ÎŻÎœÎ±Îč η Î”Ï†Î±ÏÎŒÎżÎłÎź ÎłÎ”Ï‰ÏƒÏ„Î±Ï„ÎčστÎčÎșώΜ ΌΔΞόΎωΜ ÎșαÎč ÎŒÎżÎœÏ„Î­Î»Ï‰Îœ Î±ÎœÎŹÎ»Ï…ÏƒÎ·Ï‚ Ï‡ÏÎżÎœÎżÏƒÎ”ÎčρώΜ ΌΔ ÏƒÏ„ÏŒÏ‡Îż τηΜ Î±ÎœÎŹÎ»Ï…ÏƒÎ· τωΜ χωρÎčÎșώΜ ÏƒÏ…ÏƒÏ‡Î”Ï„ÎŻÏƒÎ”Ï‰Îœ ÎŽÎčÎ±ÎłÏÎ±Ï†ÎčώΜ ÎłÎ”ÏŽÏ„ÏÎ·ÏƒÎ·Ï‚, όπως Î”Ï€ÎŻÏƒÎ·Ï‚ ÎșαÎč τηΜ πρόÎČλΔψη (Î±Ï€ÎżÎșÎ±Ï„ÎŹÏƒÏ„Î±ÏƒÎ·) ÎșΔΜώΜ ÎŽÎ”ÎŽÎżÎŒÎ­ÎœÏ‰Îœ (missing data). ΀α ÎșÎ”ÎœÎŹ ÎŽÎ”ÎŽÎżÎŒÎ­ÎœÏ‰Îœ Ï€ÏÎżÎ­ÏÏ‡ÎżÎœÏ„Î±Îč Î”ÎŻÏ„Î” από Î±ÏƒÏ„ÎżÏ‡ÎŻÎ”Ï‚ Î”ÎŸÎżÏ€Î»ÎčÏƒÎŒÎżÏ, Î”ÎŻÏ„Î” από ΎυσλΔÎčÏ„ÎżÏ…ÏÎłÎŻÎ± τωΜ αÎčÏƒÎžÎ·Ï„ÎźÏÏ‰Îœ, Îź αÎșόΌη από ÏƒÏ†ÎŹÎ»ÎŒÎ±Ï„Î± στα ÏƒÏ…ÏƒÏ„ÎźÎŒÎ±Ï„Î± "Î±Ï€ÎżÏƒÏ„ÎżÎ»ÎźÏ‚/Î±ÎœÎŹÎșτησης" ÎŽÎ”ÎŽÎżÎŒÎ­ÎœÏ‰Îœ. ΀α Ï€ÏÎżÎČÎ»ÎźÎŒÎ±Ï„Î± Î±Ï…Ï„ÎŹ ÎŽÏ…ÏƒÏ‡Î”ÏÎ±ÎŻÎœÎżÏ…Îœ τηΜ ÎŽÎčαΎÎčÎșÎ±ÏƒÎŻÎ± ΔÎșÏ„ÎŻÎŒÎ·ÏƒÎ·Ï‚ τωΜ ÎłÎ”Ï‰Î»ÎżÎłÎčÎșώΜ σχηΌατÎčσΌώΜ από τÎčς ÎŽÎčÎ±ÎłÏÎ±Ï†ÎŻÎ”Ï‚. Η Ï€Î±ÏÎżÏÏƒÎ± Î”ÏÎłÎ±ÏƒÎŻÎ± ÎłÏÎŹÏ†Ï„Î·ÎșΔ ΌΔ τηΜ Ï€ÏÎżÎżÏ€Ï„ÎčÎșÎź Ï€ÏÎżÏƒÎ­ÎłÎłÎčσης τωΜ ÎŽÏÎż Ï€Î±ÏÎ±Ï€ÎŹÎœÏ‰ ÎžÎ”ÎŒÎŹÏ„Ï‰Îœ, ΎηλαΎΟ της Î±ÎœÎŹÎ»Ï…ÏƒÎ·Ï‚ τωΜ χωρÎčÎșώΜ ÏƒÏ…ÏƒÏ‡Î”Ï„ÎŻÏƒÎ”Ï‰Îœ ÎșαÎč της Î±Ï€ÎżÎșÎ±Ï„ÎŹÏƒÏ„Î±ÏƒÎ·Ï‚ ÎșΔΜώΜ ÎŽÎ”ÎŽÎżÎŒÎ­ÎœÏ‰Îœ. Η Ï€Î±ÏÎżÏÏƒÎ± Î”ÏÎłÎ±ÏƒÎŻÎ± ΔπÎčÎșΔΜτρώΜΔταÎč στηΜ Î±ÎœÎŹÎ»Ï…ÏƒÎ· ÎŽÎčαΞέσÎčΌωΜ ÎŽÎ”ÎŽÎżÎŒÎ­ÎœÏ‰Îœ από ÎŽÎčÎ±ÎłÏÎ±Ï†ÎŻÎ”Ï‚ ταΌÎčÎ”Ï…Ï„ÎźÏÏ‰Îœ Ï…ÎŽÏÎżÎłÎżÎœÎ±ÎœÎžÏÎŹÎșωΜ Ï€ÎżÏ… ÎČÏÎŻÏƒÎșÎżÎœÏ„Î±Îč στηΜ ÎœÎźÏƒÎż Labrador ÏƒÏ„Îż ΔυτÎčÎșό Newfoundland (ÎšÎ±ÎœÎ±ÎŽÎŹÏ‚). Η ΌΔλέτη ÎČÎ±ÏƒÎŻÎ¶Î”Ï„Î±Îč στηΜ Î±ÎœÎŹÎ»Ï…ÏƒÎ· τωΜ αÎșÏŒÎ»ÎżÏ…ÎžÏ‰Îœ Ï„Î”ÏƒÏƒÎŹÏÏ‰Îœ ΔπÎčÎ»Î”ÎłÎŒÎ­ÎœÏ‰Îœ ÎŽÎčÎ±ÎłÏÎ±Ï†ÎčώΜ: φυσÎčÎșό ΎυΜαΌÎčÎșό, ΎΔίÎșτης αÎșτÎčÎœÎżÎČÎżÎ»ÎŻÎ±Ï‚ ÎłÎŹÎŒÎŒÎ± ÎșαÎč ηλΔÎșÏ„ÏÎżÎŒÎ±ÎłÎœÎ·Ï„ÎčÎșÎźÏ‚ Î”Ï€Î±ÎłÏ‰ÎłÎźÏ‚ από έΟÎč σχηΌατÎčÏƒÎŒÎżÏÏ‚ Ï€ÎżÏ… ÎČÏÎŻÏƒÎșÎżÎœÏ„Î±Îč σΔ ÎŽÏÎż Î”Ï€ÎŹÎșτÎčΔς ÎłÎ”Ï‰Ï„ÏÎźÏƒÎ”Îčς, ÎżÎœÏŒÎŒÎ±Ï„Îč Finnegan ÎșαÎč Seamus. ΟÎč ÎŽÏÎż ÎłÎ”Ï‰Ï„ÏÎźÏƒÎ”Îčς ÎČÏÎŻÏƒÎșÎżÎœÏ„Î±Îč σΔ απόσταση 14.5 χλΌ ΌΔταΟύ Ï„ÎżÏ…Ï‚. ΑΜαλυτÎčÎșότΔρα, ÎżÎč υπό ΌΔλέτη σχηΌατÎčÏƒÎŒÎżÎŻ της ÎłÎ”ÏŽÏ„ÏÎ·ÏƒÎ·Ï‚ Finnegan Î”ÎŻÎœÎ±Îč ÎżÎč αÎșÏŒÎ»ÎżÏ…ÎžÎżÎč: Goose (American) Tickle ΌΔ 1422 ÎŽÎ”ÎŽÎżÎŒÎ­ÎœÎ±, Table Point ΌΔ 725 ÎŽÎ”ÎŽÎżÎŒÎ­ÎœÎ±, Aguathuna ΌΔ 250 ÎŽÎ”ÎŽÎżÎŒÎ­ÎœÎ±, Catoche ΌΔ 624 ÎŽÎ”ÎŽÎżÎŒÎ­ÎœÎ±, Boat Harbour ΌΔ 599 ÎŽÎ”ÎŽÎżÎŒÎ­ÎœÎ±, ÎșαÎč Watts Bight ΌΔ 349 ÎŽÎ”ÎŽÎżÎŒÎ­ÎœÎ±. Î‘ÎœÏ„ÎŻÏƒÏ„ÎżÎčχα, ÎżÎč υπό ΌΔλέτη σχηΌατÎčÏƒÎŒÎżÎŻ της ÎłÎ”ÏŽÏ„ÏÎ·ÏƒÎ·Ï‚ Seamus Î”ÎŻÎœÎ±Îč ÎżÎč αÎșÏŒÎ»ÎżÏ…ÎžÎżÎč: Goose (American) Tickle ΌΔ 1700 ÎŽÎ”ÎŽÎżÎŒÎ­ÎœÎ±, Table Point ΌΔ 871 ÎŽÎ”ÎŽÎżÎŒÎ­ÎœÎ±, Aguathuna ΌΔ 347 ÎŽÎ”ÎŽÎżÎŒÎ­ÎœÎ±, Catoche ΌΔ 721 ÎŽÎ”ÎŽÎżÎŒÎ­ÎœÎ±, Boat Harbour ΌΔ 819 ÎŽÎ”ÎŽÎżÎŒÎ­ÎœÎ±, ÎșαÎč Watts Bight ΌΔ 406 ÎŽÎ”ÎŽÎżÎŒÎ­ÎœÎ±. Η ÏƒÏ…ÎłÎșΔÎșρÎčΌέΜη ΌΔλέτη ΔστÎčΏζΔÎč σΔ Ï„ÏÎŻÎ± ÎșύρÎčα ÏƒÎ·ÎŒÎ”ÎŻÎ± ΔΜΎÎčÎ±Ï†Î­ÏÎżÎœÏ„ÎżÏ‚: (i) ΔÎșÏ„ÎŻÎŒÎ·ÏƒÎ· χωρÎčÎșώΜ ÏƒÏ…ÏƒÏ‡Î”Ï„ÎŻÏƒÎ”Ï‰Îœ από ÎŽÎčÎ±ÎłÏÎ±Ï†ÎŻÎ”Ï‚ Ï€ÎżÏ… λαΌÎČÎŹÎœÎżÎœÏ„Î±Îč από τηΜ ÎŻÎŽÎčα ÎłÎ”ÏŽÏ„ÏÎ·ÏƒÎ·, (ii) ΔÎșÏ„ÎŻÎŒÎ·ÏƒÎ· της Î”Ï„Î”ÏÎżÏƒÏ…ÏƒÏ‡Î­Ï„Îčσης ΌΔταΟύ τωΜ ÎŒÎ”Ï„ÏÎźÏƒÎ”Ï‰Îœ τωΜ ÎŻÎŽÎčωΜ φυσÎčÎșώΜ ÎčÎŽÎčÎżÏ„ÎźÏ„Ï‰Îœ από ÎŽÏÎż ÎŽÎčÎ±Ï†ÎżÏÎ”Ï„ÎčÎșές ÎłÎ”Ï‰Ï„ÏÎźÏƒÎ”Îčς, (iii) ÎŽÎčΔρΔύΜηση ΌΔΞόΎωΜ ÎłÎčα τηΜ αΜαÎșατασÎșÎ”Ï…Îź ÎșΔΜώΜ ÎŽÎ”ÎŽÎżÎŒÎ­ÎœÏ‰Îœ. ΓÎčα Ï„ÎżÎœ Ï€ÏÏŽÏ„Îż ÏƒÏ„ÏŒÏ‡Îż, Ï€ÏÎżÏƒÎŽÎčÎżÏÎŻÏƒÎ±ÎŒÎ” Ï„ÎżÏ…Ï‚ ÎŽÎčÎŹÏ†ÎżÏÎżÏ…Ï‚ ÎłÎ”Ï‰Î»ÎżÎłÎčÎșÎżÏÏ‚ σχηΌατÎčÏƒÎŒÎżÏÏ‚ στα ÏƒÎ·ÎŒÎ”ÎŻÎ± τωΜ ÎłÎ”Ï‰Ï„ÏÎźÏƒÎ”Ï‰Îœ. ΕφαρΌόσαΌΔ ÎŽÎčΔρΔυΜητÎčÎșÎź στατÎčστÎčÎșÎź Î±ÎœÎŹÎ»Ï…ÏƒÎ· ÎŽÎ”ÎŽÎżÎŒÎ­ÎœÏ‰Îœ ÎłÎčα Μα Ï€ÏÎżÏƒÎŽÎčÎżÏÎčÏƒÏ„ÎżÏÎœ ÎżÎč ÎșÎ±Ï„Î±ÎœÎżÎŒÎ­Ï‚ πÎčΞαΜότητας ÎșΏΞΔ ÎŽÎčÎ±ÎłÏÎ±Ï†ÎŻÎ±Ï‚ Î±ÎœÎŹ σχηΌατÎčσΌό, όπως Î”Ï€ÎŻÏƒÎ·Ï‚ ÎșαÎč ÎłÎčα Μα Ï€ÏÎżÏƒÎŽÎčÎżÏÎčÏƒÏ„ÎżÏÎœ τα ÎČέλτÎčστα ÎŒÎżÎœÏ„Î­Î»Î± ÎČαρÎčÎżÎłÏÎ±ÎŒÎŒÎŹÏ„Ï‰Îœ Î±ÎœÎŹ ÎŽÎčÎ±ÎłÏÎ±Ï†ÎŻÎ±. ΓÎčα Ï„ÎżÎœ ÎŽÎ”ÏÏ„Î”ÏÎż ÏƒÏ„ÏŒÏ‡Îż χρησÎčÎŒÎżÏ€ÎżÎčÎźÏƒÎ±ÎŒÎ” ÎŒÎ”ÎžÏŒÎŽÎżÏ…Ï‚ παρΔΌÎČÎżÎ»ÎźÏ‚ ΌΔ σÎșÎżÏ€ÏŒ Μα ΎηΌÎčÎżÏ…ÏÎłÎźÏƒÎżÏ…ÎŒÎ” ÎŽÏÎż Î”Ï…ÎžÏ…ÎłÏÎ±ÎŒÎŒÎčσΌέΜα ÏƒÏÎœÎżÎ»Î± ÎŽÎ”ÎŽÎżÎŒÎ­ÎœÏ‰Îœ ΌΔ ÎșÎżÎčΜό ÎČÎźÎŒÎ± ΎΔÎčÎłÎŒÎ±Ï„ÎżÎ»Î·ÏˆÎŻÎ±Ï‚. Î‘Ï…Ï„Îź η ÎŽÎčαΎÎčÎșÎ±ÏƒÎŻÎ± ÎșÏÎŻÎžÎ·ÎșΔ Î±Ï€Î±ÏÎ±ÎŻÏ„Î·Ï„Î· ÎŽÎčότÎč ÎŽÎčÎ±Ï†ÎżÏÎ”Ï„ÎčÎșοί σχηΌατÎčÏƒÎŒÎżÎŻ ÎČÏÎŻÏƒÎșÎżÎœÏ„Î±Îč σΔ ÎŽÎčÎ±Ï†ÎżÏÎ”Ï„ÎčÎșÎŹ ÎČΏΞη ÎșÎ±Ï„ÎŹ ÎŒÎźÎșÎżÏ‚ της ÎșΏΞΔ ÎłÎ”ÏŽÏ„ÏÎ·ÏƒÎ·Ï‚, ΔΜώ Ï„Îż ÎČÎźÎŒÎ± ΎΔÎčÎłÎŒÎ±Ï„ÎżÎ»Î·ÏˆÎŻÎ±Ï‚ ÎŽÎčαφέρΔÎč ΌΔταΟύ τωΜ ÎłÎ”Ï‰Ï„ÏÎźÏƒÎ”Ï‰Îœ. ΕΜ ÏƒÏ…ÎœÎ”Ï‡Î”ÎŻÎ± ÏƒÏ…ÎłÎșÏÎŻÎœÎ±ÎŒÎ” τα Î±Ï€ÎżÏ„Î”Î»Î­ÏƒÎŒÎ±Ï„Î± τωΜ τÎčΌώΜ τωΜ ÎŽÎčÎŹÏ†ÎżÏÏ‰Îœ ΌΔΞόΎωΜ παρΔΌÎČÎżÎ»ÎźÏ‚ Ï€ÎżÏ… ΔφαρΌόστηÎșαΜ ÎłÎčα Ï„ÎżÎœ Ï…Ï€ÎżÎ»ÎżÎłÎčσΌό της Î”Ï„Î”ÏÎżÏƒÏ…ÏƒÏ‡Î­Ï„Îčσης τωΜ ÎłÎ”Ï‰Ï„ÏÎźÏƒÎ”Ï‰Îœ. ΟÎč ÎŒÎ­ÎžÎżÎŽÎżÎč Î±Ï…Ï„ÎżÎŻ πΔρÎčλαΌÎČÎŹÎœÎżÏ…Îœ τηΜ ÎłÏÎ±ÎŒÎŒÎčÎșÎź παρΔΌÎČολΟ, τηΜ ÎșυÎČÎčÎșÎź παρΔΌÎČολΟ, τηΜ παρΔΌÎČολΟ ÏƒÏ†Î·ÎœÎżÎ”ÎčÎŽÏŽÎœ ÏƒÏ…ÎœÎ±ÏÏ„ÎźÏƒÎ”Ï‰Îœ (splines) όπως Î”Ï€ÎŻÏƒÎ·Ï‚ ÎșαÎč τηΜ τΔχΜÎčÎșÎź Ï„ÎżÏ… ÎșÎżÎœÏ„ÎčÎœÏŒÏ„Î”ÏÎżÏ… ÎłÎ”ÎŻÏ„ÎżÎœÎ±. Ο Ï„ÏÎŻÏ„ÎżÏ‚ ÏƒÏ„ÏŒÏ‡ÎżÏ‚ Î±Ï€ÎżÏƒÎșÎżÏ€Î”ÎŻ στηΜ ÎŽÎčΔρΔύΜηση τωΜ Î”Ï†Î±ÏÎŒÎżÎłÏŽÎœ της Î±ÎœÎŹÎ»Ï…ÏƒÎ·Ï‚ Ï‡ÏÎżÎœÎżÏƒÎ”ÎčρώΜ στηΜ ΔÎșÏ„ÎŻÎŒÎ·ÏƒÎ· ÎșΔΜώΜ ÎŽÎ”ÎŽÎżÎŒÎ­ÎœÏ‰Îœ ÎŽÎčÎ±ÎłÏÎ±Ï†ÎčώΜ. ΀α ÎŒÎżÎœÏ„Î­Î»Î± αΜτÎčÎșÎ±Ï„ÎŹÏƒÏ„Î±ÏƒÎ·Ï‚ (imputation) ÎșαÎč παρΔΌÎČÎżÎ»ÎźÏ‚ χρησÎčÎŒÎżÏ€ÎżÎčÎżÏÎœÏ„Î±Îč ÏƒÏ…ÎœÎźÎžÏ‰Ï‚ ÎłÎčα Μα Ï€Î»Î·ÏÏŽÏƒÎżÏ…Îœ ÎșÎ”ÎœÎŹ ÎŽÎ”ÎŽÎżÎŒÎ­ÎœÏ‰Îœ σΔ ÎŽÎčÎ±ÎłÏÎ±Ï†ÎŻÎ”Ï‚ ÎłÎ”Ï‰Ï„ÏÎźÏƒÎ”Ï‰Îœ. ΓÎčα Ï„ÎżÎœ Ï…Ï€ÎżÎ»ÎżÎłÎčσΌό της Î±Ï€ÏŒÎŽÎżÏƒÎ·Ï‚ τωΜ ÎŽÎčÎŹÏ†ÎżÏÏ‰Îœ ΌΔΞόΎωΜ, ÎżÎč ÎșÎ±Ï„Î±ÎłÎ”ÎłÏÎ±ÎŒÎŒÎ­ÎœÎ”Ï‚ ÎŽÎčÎ±ÎłÏÎ±Ï†ÎŻÎ”Ï‚ ÎŽÎčÎ±Ï‡Ï‰ÏÎŻÎ¶ÎżÎœÏ„Î±Îč σΔ ÎŽÏÎż ÎŽÎčαÎșρÎčÏ„ÎŹ ÏƒÏÎœÎżÎ»Î±: Ï„Îż ÏƒÏÎœÎżÎ»Îż ΔÎșÏ€Î±ÎŻÎŽÎ”Ï…ÏƒÎ·Ï‚ (ÎżÎč τÎčΌές τωΜ ÎŽÎčÎ±ÎłÏÎ±Ï†ÎčώΜ σΔ αυτό Ï„Îż ÏƒÏÎœÎżÎ»Îż ÎžÎ”Ï‰ÏÎżÏÎœÏ„Î±Îč ÎłÎœÏ‰ÏƒÏ„Î­Ï‚) ÎșαÎč Ï„Îż ÏƒÏÎœÎżÎ»Îż Î”Î»Î­ÎłÏ‡ÎżÏ… (ÏŒÏ€ÎżÏ… ÎżÎč τÎčΌές τωΜ ÎŽÎčÎ±ÎłÏÎ±Ï†ÎčώΜ ÎžÎ”Ï‰ÏÎżÏÎœÏ„Î±Îč ÎŹÎłÎœÏ‰ÏƒÏ„Î”Ï‚). Η ÏƒÏ…ÎŒÏ€Î»ÎźÏÏ‰ÏƒÎ· τωΜ ÎșΔΜώΜ έγÎčΜΔ ΌΔ τηΜ Ï‡ÏÎźÏƒÎ· τωΜ ΌΔΞόΎωΜ αΜτÎčÎșÎ±Ï„ÎŹÏƒÏ„Î±ÏƒÎ·Ï‚, παρΔΌÎČÎżÎ»ÎźÏ‚ ÎșαÎč Ï‡ÏÎżÎœÎżÏƒÎ”ÎčρώΜ. ΟÎč ÎŒÎ­ÎžÎżÎŽÎżÎč πΔρÎčλαΌÎČÎŹÎœÎżÏ…Îœ τηΜ Kalman Arima, τηΜ ÎŒÎ­ÎžÎżÎŽÎż ÎŒÎ­ÏƒÎż ÏŒÏÎżÏ…, τηΜ ÎłÏÎ±ÎŒÎŒÎčÎșÎź παρΔΌÎČολΟ ÎșαÎč τηΜ παρΔΌÎČολΟ ÏƒÏ†Î·ÎœÎżÎ”ÎčÎŽÏŽÎœ ÏƒÏ…ÎœÎ±ÏÏ„ÎźÏƒÎ”Ï‰Îœ (Spline) όπως Î”Ï€ÎŻÏƒÎ·Ï‚ ÎșαÎč Ï„ÎżÎœ απλός ÎșÎčÎœÎżÏÎŒÎ”ÎœÎż ÎŒÎ­ÏƒÎż ÏŒÏÎż, ÎșαÎč Ï„ÎżÎœ Î¶Ï…ÎłÎčÏƒÎŒÎ­ÎœÎż ÎșÎčΜητό ÎŒÎ­ÏƒÎż ÏŒÏÎż. Η αÎșÏÎŻÎČΔÎčα της πρόÎČλΔψης ÎČÎ±ÏƒÎŻÏƒÏ„Î·ÎșΔ στηΜ απόσταση Î±ÎœÎŹÎŒÎ”ÏƒÎ± στα αυΞΔΜτÎčÎșÎŹ ÎŽÎ”ÎŽÎżÎŒÎ­ÎœÎ± ÎșαÎč στÎčς ΔÎșτÎčÎŒÎźÏƒÎ”Îčς Όέσω τωΜ ΌΔΞόΎωΜ αΜτÎčÎșÎ±Ï„ÎŹÏƒÏ„Î±ÏƒÎ·Ï‚, παρΔΌÎČÎżÎ»ÎźÏ‚ Îź Ï‡ÏÎżÎœÎżÏƒÎ”ÎčρώΜ. ÎŁÏ‡Î”Ï„ÎčÎșÎŹ ΌΔ Ï„ÎżÎœ Ï€ÏÏŽÏ„Îż ÏƒÏ„ÏŒÏ‡Îż της Î”ÏÎłÎ±ÏƒÎŻÎ±Ï‚, η ÎŽÎčΔρΔυΜητÎčÎșÎź Î±ÎœÎŹÎ»Ï…ÏƒÎ· έΎΔÎčΟΔ ότÎč η πλΔÎčÎżÏˆÎ·Ï†ÎŻÎ± τωΜ ÎŒÎ”Ï„ÏÎżÏÎŒÎ”ÎœÏ‰Îœ ÎčÎŽÎčÎżÏ„ÎźÏ„Ï‰Îœ ΎΔΜ αÎșÎżÎ»ÎżÏ…ÎžÎ”ÎŻ τηΜ ΓÎșÎ±ÎżÏ…ÏƒÏƒÎčÎ±ÎœÎź ÎșÎ±Ï„Î±ÎœÎżÎŒÎź πÎčΞαΜότητας. ΣΔ αυτές τÎčς πΔρÎčπτώσΔÎčς, ÎșατόπÎčÎœ Î±Ï†Î±ÎŻÏÎ”ÏƒÎ·Ï‚ ÎŒÎčας ÏƒÏ…ÎœÎŹÏÏ„Î·ÏƒÎ·Ï‚ Ï„ÎŹÏƒÎ·Ï‚ τα στατÎčστÎčÎșÎŹ Ï…Ï€ÏŒÎ»ÎżÎčπα ÎČÏÎŻÏƒÎșÎżÎœÏ„Î±Îč πÎčÎż ÎșÎżÎœÏ„ÎŹ στηΜ ΓÎșÎ±ÎżÏ…ÏƒÎčÎ±ÎœÎź ÎșÎ±Ï„Î±ÎœÎżÎŒÎź. ΀α Î±Ï€ÎżÏ„Î”Î»Î­ÏƒÎŒÎ±Ï„Î± της ΌΔλέτης Î±Ï€ÎżÎŽÎ”ÎčÎșÎœÏÎżÏ…Îœ ότÎč ÎżÎč ÎŽÎčÎ±ÎłÏÎ±Ï†ÎŻÎ”Ï‚ φυσÎčÎșÎżÏ ΎυΜαΌÎčÎșÎżÏ ÎșαÎč ÎŽÎčÎŹÏ„Î±ÎŸÎ·Ï‚ αÎșτÎčÎœÎżÎČÎżÎ»ÎŻÎ±Ï‚ ÎłÎŹÎŒÎŒÎ± πΔρÎčÎłÏÎŹÏ†ÎżÎœÏ„Î±Îč ÎșαλύτΔρα από ÎșÎ±Ï„Î±ÎœÎżÎŒÎ­Ï‚ πÎčΞαΜότητας Ï€ÎżÏ… ÎżÏÎŻÎ¶ÎżÎœÏ„Î±Îč σΔ ÏŒÎ»Îż Ï„Îż Ï€Î”ÎŽÎŻÎż τωΜ Ï€ÏÎ±ÎłÎŒÎ±Ï„ÎčÎșώΜ τÎčΌώΜ, όπως ÎżÎč ÎșÎ±Ï„Î±ÎœÎżÎŒÎ­Ï‚ Cauchy ÎșαÎč Gumbel. Î‘ÎœÏ„ÎŻÎžÎ”Ï„Î±, ÎżÎč ÎŽÎčÎ±ÎłÏÎ±Ï†ÎŻÎ”Ï‚ Î”Ï€Î±ÎłÏ‰ÎłÎźÏ‚ πΔρÎčÎłÏÎŹÏ†ÎżÎœÏ„Î±Îč ÎșαλύτΔρα από ÎșÎ±Ï„Î±ÎœÎżÎŒÎ­Ï‚ Ï€ÎżÏ… ÎżÏÎŻÎ¶ÎżÎœÏ„Î±Îč ÏƒÏ„Îż ÏƒÏÎœÎżÎ»Îż τωΜ ΞΔτÎčÎșώΜ αρÎčΞΌώΜ όπως ÎżÎč ÎșÎ±Ï„Î±ÎœÎżÎŒÎ­Ï‚ Î“ÎŹÎŒÎŒÎ± ÎșαÎč Weibull. ΀α Î±Ï€ÎżÏ„Î”Î»Î­ÏƒÎŒÎ±Ï„Î± της Î±ÎœÎŹÎ»Ï…ÏƒÎ·Ï‚ τωΜ ÎČαρÎčÎżÎłÏÎ±ÎŒÎŒÎŹÏ„Ï‰Îœ έΎΔÎčΟαΜ ότÎč ÎżÎč ÎŽÎčÎ±ÎłÏÎ±Ï†ÎŻÎ”Ï‚ φυσÎčÎșÎżÏ ΎυΜαΌÎčÎșÎżÏ ÎșαÎč ÎŽÎčÎŹÏ„Î±ÎŸÎ·Ï‚ αÎșτÎčÎœÎżÎČÎżÎ»ÎŻÎ±Ï‚ ÎłÎŹÎŒÎŒÎ±, Ï€ÎżÎ»Ï ÏƒÏ…Ï‡ÎœÎŹ Ï€ÏÎżÏƒÎ±ÏÎŒÏŒÎ¶ÎżÎœÏ„Î±Îč ÏƒÏ„Îż ÎŻÎŽÎčÎż ΞΔωρητÎčÎșό ÎŒÎżÎœÏ„Î­Î»Îż ÎČαρÎčÎżÎłÏÎŹÎŒÎŒÎ±Ï„ÎżÏ‚ ÎșαÎč αυτό ÎżÏ†Î”ÎŻÎ»Î”Ï„Î±Îč ÏƒÏ„Îż ÎłÎ”ÎłÎżÎœÏŒÏ‚ ότÎč ÎżÎč τÎčΌές της ÎżÏÎżÏ†ÎźÏ‚ ÎșαÎč της ζώΜη ΔπÎčÏÏÎżÎźÏ‚ Î”ÎŻÎœÎ±Îč Ï€Î±ÏÏŒÎŒÎżÎčΔς. Η Î±ÎœÎŹÎ»Ï…ÏƒÎ· ÎČαρÎčÎżÎłÏÎŹÎŒÎŒÎ±Ï„ÎżÏ‚ ΔπÎčÎČΔÎČαÎčώΜΔÎč τηΜ Ï…ÏˆÎ·Î»Îź χωρÎčÎșÎź Î”Ï„Î”ÏÎżÎłÎ­ÎœÎ”Îčα Ï€ÎżÏ… χαραÎșÏ„Î·ÏÎŻÎ¶Î”Îč τÎčς ÎșÎ±Ï„Î±ÎłÏÎ±Ï†Î­Ï‚ ÎŽÎčÎ±ÎłÏÎ±Ï†ÎčώΜ. ÎŒÏƒÎżÎœ Î±Ï†ÎżÏÎŹ ÏƒÏ„Îż ÎŽÎ”ÏÏ„Î”ÏÎż ÏƒÏ„ÏŒÏ‡Îż της Î”ÏÎłÎ±ÏƒÎŻÎ±Ï‚, τα αρÎčΞΌητÎčÎșÎŹ Î±Ï€ÎżÏ„Î”Î»Î­ÏƒÎŒÎ±Ï„Î± της στατÎčστÎčÎșÎźÏ‚ Î±ÎœÎŹÎ»Ï…ÏƒÎ·Ï‚ έΎΔÎčΟαΜ Î±ÏƒÎžÎ”ÎœÎź Î”Ï„Î”ÏÎżÏƒÏ…ÏƒÏ‡Î­Ï„Îčση ΌΔταΟύ τωΜ ÎčÎŽÎčÎżÏ„ÎźÏ„Ï‰Îœ Ï€ÎżÏ… ÎŒÎ”Ï„ÏÎźÎžÎ·ÎșαΜ στÎčς ÎŽÏÎż ÎłÎ”Ï‰Ï„ÏÎźÏƒÎ”Îčς. Η Î”Ï„Î”ÏÎżÏƒÏ…ÏƒÏ‡Î­Ï„Îčση Î”ÎŸÎ”Ï„ÎŹÏƒÏ„Î·ÎșΔ Όέσω Ï„ÎżÏ… Ï…Ï€ÎżÎ»ÎżÎłÎčÏƒÎŒÎżÏ ΌέτρωΜ στατÎčστÎčÎșÎźÏ‚ Î”ÎŸÎŹÏÏ„Î·ÏƒÎ·Ï‚ όπως η συσχέτÎčση Pearson ÎșαÎč η συσχέτÎčση Spearman. Όπως αΜαφέρΞηÎșΔ αΜωτέρω, ÎłÎčα Ï„ÎżÎœ Ï…Ï€ÎżÎ»ÎżÎłÎčσΌό τωΜ Î”Ï„Î”ÏÎżÏƒÏ…ÏƒÏ‡Î”Ï„ÎŻÏƒÎ”Ï‰Îœ χρησÎčÎŒÎżÏ€ÎżÎčΟΞηÎșαΜ ÎŒÎ­ÎžÎżÎŽÎżÎč παρΔΌÎČÎżÎ»ÎźÏ‚ ΌΔ σÎșÎżÏ€ÏŒ τηΜ ÎżÎŒÎżÎłÎ”ÎœÎżÏ€ÎżÎŻÎ·ÏƒÎ· Ï„ÎżÏ… ÎČÎźÎŒÎ±Ï„ÎżÏ‚ ΎΔÎčÎłÎŒÎ±Ï„ÎżÎ»Î·ÏˆÎŻÎ±Ï‚. ΌλΔς ÎżÎč ÎŒÎ­ÎžÎżÎŽÎżÎč ÎżÎŽÎźÎłÎ·ÏƒÎ±Îœ σΔ Ï€Î±ÏÏŒÎŒÎżÎčΔς ΔÎșτÎčÎŒÎźÏƒÎ”Îčς τωΜ ÏƒÏ…ÏƒÏ‡Î”Ï„ÎŻÏƒÎ”Ï‰Îœ. ΟÎč ÎŽÎčÎ±ÎłÏÎ±Ï†ÎŻÎ”Ï‚ ÎŽÎčÎŹÏ„Î±ÎŸÎ·Ï‚ αÎșÏ„ÎŻÎœÏ‰Îœ ÎłÎŹÎŒÎŒÎ± απέΎωσαΜ Ï„Îż πÎčÎż ΔΜΎÎčÎ±Ï†Î­ÏÎżÎœÏ„Î± Î±Ï€ÎżÏ„Î”Î»Î­ÏƒÎŒÎ±Ï„Î± σΔ σχέση ΌΔ τÎčς Ï…Ï€ÏŒÎ»ÎżÎčπΔς ÎŽÎčÎ±ÎłÏÎ±Ï†ÎŻÎ”Ï‚, Ï€Î±ÏÎżÏ…ÏƒÎčÎŹÎ¶ÎżÎœÏ„Î±Ï‚ Ï„ÏŒÏƒÎż ΞΔτÎčÎșές ÏŒÏƒÎż ÎșαÎč αρΜητÎčÎșές τÎčΌές ÏƒÏ…ÏƒÏ‡Î”Ï„ÎŻÏƒÎ”Ï‰Îœ. ΟÎč τÎčΌές τωΜ ΞΔτÎčÎșώΜ συΜτΔλΔστώΜ συσχέτÎčσης ÎșÏ…ÎŒÎ±ÎŻÎœÎżÎœÏ„Î±Îč από 0.001 έως 0.483, ΔΜώ ÎżÎč τÎčΌές τωΜ αρΜητÎčÎșώΜ συΜτΔλΔστώΜ συσχέτÎčσης ΔÎșÏ„Î”ÎŻÎœÎżÎœÏ„Î±Îč από -0.142 έως -0.001. Î‘ÎœÎ±Ï†ÎżÏÎčÎșÎŹ ΌΔ Ï„ÎżÎœ Ï„ÏÎŻÏ„Îż ÏƒÏ„ÏŒÏ‡Îż της Î”ÏÎłÎ±ÏƒÎŻÎ±Ï‚, η ÏƒÏÎłÎșρÎčση ÎșαÎč η Ï€ÎżÏƒÎżÏ„ÎčÎșÎżÏ€ÎżÎŻÎ·ÏƒÎ· της Î±Ï€ÏŒÎŽÎżÏƒÎ·Ï‚ τωΜ Î±Î»ÎłÎżÏÎŻÎžÎŒÏ‰Îœ αΜτÎčÎșÎ±Ï„ÎŹÏƒÏ„Î±ÏƒÎ·Ï‚ ÎșαÎč παρΔΌÎČÎżÎ»ÎźÏ‚ έΎΔÎčΟΔ ότÎč η ÎłÏÎ±ÎŒÎŒÎčÎșÎź παρΔΌÎČολΟ, Îż Î¶Ï…ÎłÎčÏƒÎŒÎ­ÎœÎżÏ‚ ÎŒÎ­ÏƒÎżÏ‚ ÏŒÏÎżÏ‚, ÎșαÎč λÎčÎłÏŒÏ„Î”ÏÎż ÏƒÏ…Ï‡ÎœÎŹ η ÎŒÎ­ÎžÎżÎŽÎżÏ‚ Kalman-Arima, Î”ÎŻÎœÎ±Îč τα πÎčÎż Î±Ï€ÎżÎŽÎżÏ„ÎčÎșÎŹ ÎŒÎżÎœÏ„Î­Î»Î± Î±Ï€ÎżÎșÎ±Ï„ÎŹÏƒÏ„Î±ÏƒÎ·Ï‚ ÎșΔΜώΜ ÎŽÎ”ÎŽÎżÎŒÎ­ÎœÏ‰Îœ

    Evaluation of a quality improvement intervention to reduce anastomotic leak following right colectomy (EAGLE): pragmatic, batched stepped-wedge, cluster-randomized trial in 64 countries

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    Background Anastomotic leak affects 8 per cent of patients after right colectomy with a 10-fold increased risk of postoperative death. The EAGLE study aimed to develop and test whether an international, standardized quality improvement intervention could reduce anastomotic leaks. Methods The internationally intended protocol, iteratively co-developed by a multistage Delphi process, comprised an online educational module introducing risk stratification, an intraoperative checklist, and harmonized surgical techniques. Clusters (hospital teams) were randomized to one of three arms with varied sequences of intervention/data collection by a derived stepped-wedge batch design (at least 18 hospital teams per batch). Patients were blinded to the study allocation. Low- and middle-income country enrolment was encouraged. The primary outcome (assessed by intention to treat) was anastomotic leak rate, and subgroup analyses by module completion (at least 80 per cent of surgeons, high engagement; less than 50 per cent, low engagement) were preplanned. Results A total 355 hospital teams registered, with 332 from 64 countries (39.2 per cent low and middle income) included in the final analysis. The online modules were completed by half of the surgeons (2143 of 4411). The primary analysis included 3039 of the 3268 patients recruited (206 patients had no anastomosis and 23 were lost to follow-up), with anastomotic leaks arising before and after the intervention in 10.1 and 9.6 per cent respectively (adjusted OR 0.87, 95 per cent c.i. 0.59 to 1.30; P = 0.498). The proportion of surgeons completing the educational modules was an influence: the leak rate decreased from 12.2 per cent (61 of 500) before intervention to 5.1 per cent (24 of 473) after intervention in high-engagement centres (adjusted OR 0.36, 0.20 to 0.64; P < 0.001), but this was not observed in low-engagement hospitals (8.3 per cent (59 of 714) and 13.8 per cent (61 of 443) respectively; adjusted OR 2.09, 1.31 to 3.31). Conclusion Completion of globally available digital training by engaged teams can alter anastomotic leak rates. Registration number: NCT04270721 (http://www.clinicaltrials.gov)
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