7 research outputs found
A METHODOLOGY FOR AUTONOMOUS ROOF BOLT INSTALLATION USING INDUSTRIAL ROBOTICS
The mining sector is currently in the stage of adopting more automation, and with it, robotics. Autonomous bolting in underground environments remains a hot topic for the mining industry. Roof bolter operators are exposed to hazardous conditions due to their proximity to the unsupported roof, loose bolts, and heavy spinning mass. Prolonged exposure to the risk inevitably leads to accidents and injuries.
The current thesis presents the development of a robotic assembly capable of carrying out the entire sequence of roof bolting operations in full and partial autonomous sensor-driven rock bolting operations to achieve a high-impact health and safety intervention for equipment operators. The automation of a complete cycle of drill steel positioning, drilling, bolt orientation and placement, resin placement, and bolt securing is discussed using an anthropomorphic robotic arm.A human-computer interface is developed to enable the interaction of the operators with the machines. Collision detection techniques will have to be implemented to minimize the impact after an unexpected collision has occurred. A robust failure-detection protocol is developed to check the vital parameters of robot operations continuously. This unique approach to automation of small materials handling is described with lessons learned.
A user-centered GUI has been developed that allows for a human user to control and monitor the autonomous roof bolter. Preliminary tests have been conducted in a mock mine to evaluate the developed system\u27s performance. In addition, a number of different scenarios simulating typical missions that a roof bolter needs to undertake in an underground coal mine were tested
Well-promising outcomes with vacuum-assisted closure in an infected wound following laparotomy: A case report
Introducation: Negative pressure wound therapy (NPWT) represents an alternative method to optimize conditions for wound healing. Delayed wound closure is a significant health problem, which is directly associated with pain and suffering from patient's aspect, as well with social and financial burden. Presentation of case: We report a case of vacuum-assisted wound therapy with hypertonic solution distillation and continuous negative pressure application, in an infected wound after laparotomy for incisional hernia reconstruction with mesh placement. Negative pressure was initiated at the wound margins after failure of conventional treatment with great outcomes, achieving a total closure of the incision within two weeks.
Discussion: Each wound has particular characteristics which must be managed. Vacuum assisted closure (VAC) with continuous negative pressure and simultaneous wound instillation and cleanse can provide optimum results, reducing the cavity volume, by newly produced granulated tissue.
Conclusion: The simultaneous use of instillation and constant pressure seemed to be superior in comparison with NPWT alone. Compared to conventional methods, the use of VAC ends to better outcomes, in cases of infected wounds following laparotomy
Pediatric trauma and emergency surgery: an international cross-sectional survey among WSES members
Background: In contrast to adults, the situation for pediatric trauma care from an international point of view and the global management of severely injured children remain rather unclear. The current study investigates structural management of pediatric trauma in centers of different trauma levels as well as experiences with pediatric trauma management around the world. Methods: A web-survey had been distributed to the global mailing list of the World Society of Emergency Surgery from 10/2021-03/2022, investigating characteristics of respondents and affiliated hospitals, case-load of pediatric trauma patients, capacities and infrastructure for critical care in children, trauma team composition, clinical work-up and individual experiences with pediatric trauma management in response to patientsÂŽ age. The collaboration group was subdivided regarding sizes of affiliated hospitals to allow comparisons concerning hospital volumes. Comparable results were conducted to statistical analysis. Results: A total of 133 participants from 34 countries, i.e. 5 continents responded to the survey. They were most commonly affiliated with larger hospitals (>â500 beds in 72.9%) and with level I or II trauma centers (82.0%), respectively. 74.4% of hospitals offer unrestricted pediatric medical care, but only 63.2% and 42.9% of the participants had sufficient experiences with trauma care in childrenââ€â10 andââ€â5 years of age (pâ=â0.0014). This situation is aggravated in participants from smaller hospitals (pâ<â0.01). With regard to hospital size (â€â500 versusâ>â500 in-hospital beds), larger hospitals were more likely affiliated with advanced trauma centers, more elaborated pediatric intensive care infrastructure (pâ<â0.0001), treated children at all ages more frequently (pâ=â0.0938) and have higher case-loads of severely injured childrenâ<â12 years of age (pâ=â0.0009). Therefore, the majority of larger hospitals reserve either pediatric surgery departments or board-certified pediatric surgeons (pâ<â0.0001) and in-hospital trauma management is conducted more multi-disciplinarily. However, the majority of respondents does not feel prepared for treatment of severe pediatric trauma and call for special educational and practical training courses (overall: 80.2% and 64.3%, respectively). Conclusions: Multi-professional management of pediatric trauma and individual experiences with severely injured children depend on volumes, level of trauma centers and infrastructure of the hospital. However, respondents from hospitals at all levels of trauma care complain about an alarming lack of knowledge on pediatric trauma management
Reducing the environmental impact of surgery on a global scale: systematic review and co-prioritization with healthcare workers in 132 countries
Abstract
Background
Healthcare cannot achieve net-zero carbon without addressing operating theatres. The aim of this study was to prioritize feasible interventions to reduce the environmental impact of operating theatres.
Methods
This study adopted a four-phase Delphi consensus co-prioritization methodology. In phase 1, a systematic review of published interventions and global consultation of perioperative healthcare professionals were used to longlist interventions. In phase 2, iterative thematic analysis consolidated comparable interventions into a shortlist. In phase 3, the shortlist was co-prioritized based on patient and clinician views on acceptability, feasibility, and safety. In phase 4, ranked lists of interventions were presented by their relevance to high-income countries and lowâmiddle-income countries.
Results
In phase 1, 43 interventions were identified, which had low uptake in practice according to 3042 professionals globally. In phase 2, a shortlist of 15 intervention domains was generated. In phase 3, interventions were deemed acceptable for more than 90 per cent of patients except for reducing general anaesthesia (84 per cent) and re-sterilization of âsingle-useâ consumables (86 per cent). In phase 4, the top three shortlisted interventions for high-income countries were: introducing recycling; reducing use of anaesthetic gases; and appropriate clinical waste processing. In phase 4, the top three shortlisted interventions for lowâmiddle-income countries were: introducing reusable surgical devices; reducing use of consumables; and reducing the use of general anaesthesia.
Conclusion
This is a step toward environmentally sustainable operating environments with actionable interventions applicable to both highâ and lowâmiddleâincome countries
Π΀ÎÏΜη ÏÏ Î”ÎœÎ±Î»Î»Î±ÎșÏÎčÎșÏ ÎŒÎÏÎż ΞΔÏαÏÎ”ÎŻÎ±Ï ÏÏηΜ αÏÎżÎșαÏÎŹÏÏαÏη, ÏηΜ ÏÏ ÏÎčÎșÎź Ï ÎłÎ”ÎŻÎ± ÎșαÎč ÏηΜ ÏÎżÎčÏÏηÏα ζÏÎźÏ ÏÏÎœ αÏÏÎŒÏÎœ ΌΔ αΜαÏηÏία.
ΠΞΔÏαÏΔία ÎŒÎÏÏ ÏÎ·Ï ÏÎÏÎœÎ·Ï Î”ÎŻÎœÎ±Îč ÎŒÎčα αÏÎżÏΔλΔÏΌαÏÎčÎșÎź ÎŒÎÎžÎżÎŽÎżÏ ÏαÏÎÎŒÎČαÏÎ·Ï ÎłÎčα ÎŹÏÎżÎŒÎ± ÏÎżÏ
αΜÏÎčΌΔÏÏÏίζοÏ
Îœ αΜαÏÏÏ
ΟÎčαÎșÎÏ, ΜΔÏ
ÏολογÎčÎșÎÏ, ΔÎșÏαÎčΎΔÏ
ÏÎčÎșÎÏ, ÎșÎżÎčÎœÏÎœÎčÎșÎÏ Îź ÏÏ
ÏολογÎčÎșÎÏ ÎŽÏ
ÏλΔÎčÏÎżÏ
ÏγίΔÏ. ÎŁÏÎŒÏÏΜα ΌΔ αÏ
ÏÎź Ïη ÎŒÎΞοΎο ΎΔΜ αÏαÎčÏΔίÏαÎč η λΟÏη ÏαÏΌαÎșΔÏ
ÏÎčÎșÎźÏ Î±ÎłÏÎłÎźÏ ÎșαÎč ÎÏΔÎč ÏÏ ÏÏÏÏÎż ÎșαÎč ÏÎșÎżÏÏ ÎœÎ± ÎșαΞÏ
ÏÏΔÏÎźÏΔÎč ÏηΜ ΔÏÎčÎŽÎ”ÎŻÎœÏÏη ÏÏÎœ ÏÏÎżÎčÏÎœ αÏΞΔΜΔÎčÏÎœ ÎșαÎč ÏÏ
ÎłÏÏÏÎœÏÏ ÎœÎ± ÎČΔλÏÎčÏÏΔÎč, ÏÏÎż ÎČÎ±ÎžÎŒÏ ÏÎżÏ
αÏ
ÏÏ Î”ÎŻÎœÎ±Îč ΔÏÎčÎșÏÏ, ÏηΜ ÏÏ
ÏολογÎčÎșÎź ΔÏ
ÎŒÎŹÏΔÎčα ÏÏÎœ αÏΞΔΜÏÎœ. ÎŁÎșÎżÏÏÏ ÏÎ·Ï ÏαÏÎżÏÏÎ±Ï Î”ÏγαÏÎŻÎ±Ï ÎźÏαΜ Μα ÎŽÎčΔÏΔÏ
ÎœÎźÏΔÎč ÏηΜ ΔÏÎŻÎŽÏαÏη, ÏÎżÏ
ÎÏΔÎč η ÏÎÏΜη ÏÏηΜ ÏÏ
ÏÎčÎșÎź Ï
γΔία, ÏÏηΜ αÏÎżÎșαÏÎŹÏÏαÏη ÎșαÎč ÏηΜ ÏÎżÎčÏÏηÏα ζÏÎźÏ ÏÏÎœ αÏÏÎŒÏÎœ ΌΔ αΜαÏηÏία. ÎÎčα ÏÎż ÏÎșÎżÏÏ Î±Ï
ÏÏ ÏÏÎ±ÎłÎŒÎ±ÏÎżÏÎżÎčΟΞηÎșΔ ÎČÎčÎČλÎčογÏαÏÎčÎșÎź αΜαÏÎșÏÏηÏη ÏÏÎœ ÏΔλΔÏ
ÏαίÏÎœ ΔÏÏÎœ αÏÏ ÎŽÎčαÏÎżÏΔÏÎčÎșÎÏ ÎČÎŹÏΔÎčÏ ÎŽÎ”ÎŽÎżÎŒÎÎœÏÎœ, ÏÏÏÏ Pubmed, Science Direct ÎșαÎč Google Scholar, αΜαÏÎżÏÎčÎșÎŹ ΌΔ ÎŹÏÎżÎŒÎ± ÏÎżÏ
Î±ÎœÎźÎșÎżÏ
Îœ ÏÏÎż ÏÎŹÏΌα ÏÎżÏ
αÏ
ÏÎčÏÎŒÎżÏ, ÎŹÏÎżÎŒÎ± ΌΔ ÎœÎżÎ·ÏÎčÎșÎź αΜαÏηÏία, ΌΔ ÎșÎčΜηÏÎčÎșÎÏ Î±ÎœÎ±ÏηÏίΔÏ, ΌΔ ΔÏÎčληÏία, ÎŹÏÎżÎŒÎ± ÏÎżÏ
ÎÏÎżÏ
Îœ Ï
ÏÎżÏÏΔί ΔγÎșΔÏαλÎčÎșÏ Î”ÏΔÎčÏÏÎŽÎčÎż, ΌΔÏÎŹ αÏÏ ÏÏαÏ
ΌαÏÎčÏÎŒÏ, αÏÎžÎ”ÎœÎ”ÎŻÏ ÎŒÎ” ÎŹÎœÎżÎčα, ÎșαΞÏÏ ÎșαÎč ΌΔ ÎŹÏÎżÎŒÎ± ÏÎżÏ
Î±ÎœÎźÎșÎżÏ
Îœ ÏÏηΜ ÏÏÎŻÏη ηλÎčÎșία. ÎÏÏ Ïα ÏÏ
ÎŒÏΔÏÎŹÏΌαÏα ÏÎ±ÎŻÎœÎ”ÏαÎč, ÏÏÎč η ΔΜαÏÏÏληÏη ÏÏÎœ αÏÏÎŒÏÎœ ΌΔ ÏηΜ ÏÎÏΜη ÎÏΔÎč ΞΔÏÎčÎșÎź ΔÏÎŻÎŽÏαÏη ÏÏη ΞΔÏαÏΔία ÏÎżÏ
Ï ÎșαÎč ÏÏÎżÎœ ÏÏÏÏÎż αΜÏÎčΌΔÏÏÏÎčÏÎ·Ï ÏÎ·Ï Î±ÏΞÎΜΔÎčÎ±Ï ÎșαÎč ÎżÏÎżÎčÎżÎœÎŽÎźÏÎżÏΔ ÎŽÏ
ÏÎșολÎčÏÎœ. ÎŁÏ
ÎŒÏΔÏαÏΌαÏÎčÎșÎŹ, η ΞΔÏαÏΔία ÎŒÎÏÏ ÏÎÏÎœÎ·Ï ÏαÏÎÏΔÎč ÎŒÎčα Όη λΔÎșÏÎčÎșÎź ÎŒÎżÏÏÎź ÎÎșÏÏαÏÎ·Ï ÎŒÎÏÏ ÏÎ·Ï ÎŽÎčαÎčÏΞηÏÎčÎșÎźÏ ÎșαÏαΜÏηÏÎ·Ï ÎșαÎč ÏÎ·Ï ÎżÏÏÎčÎșÎźÏ ÏαÏÎżÏ
ÏίαÏηÏ, αÏÎżÎČÎŹÎ»Î»ÎżÎœÏÎ±Ï Ïη ÎŽÏ
ÏÏÎżÏία ÎșαÎč Ïα αÏΜηÏÎčÎșÎŹ ÏÏ
ΜαÎčÏÎžÎźÎŒÎ±Ïα ÏÏÎœ αÏΞΔΜÏÎœ, ÏÏ
ÎŒÎČÎŹÎ»Î»ÎżÎœÏÎ±Ï ÏÏηΜ ÎșαλÏÏΔÏη ÏÎżÎčÏÏηÏα ζÏÎźÏ.ÎΧ
ÎÎœÎŹÎ»Ï Ïη ÎŽÎ”ÎŽÎżÎŒÎÎœÏÎœ αÏÏ ÎłÎ”ÏÏÏ ÏÎčÎșÎÏ ÎŽÎčαγÏαÏÎŻÎ”Ï ÎŒÎ” ÏÏÎźÏη ÎŒÎżÎœÏÎλÏÎœ ÏÏÎżÎœÎżÏΔÎčÏÏÎœ ÎșαÎč ΌΔΞÏÎŽÏÎœ γΔÏÏÏαÏÎčÏÏÎčÎșÎźÏ
Summarization: This thesis focuses on the statistical analysis of well log data from two hydrocarbon reservoirs located in Labrador Island, Western Newfoundland (Canada). The data is obtained from two onshore wells (Finnegan and Seamus). We focus on the analysis of four logs (spontaneous potential, Gamma radiation and two induction logs) from six different formations. The thesis has three main objectives: (i) to estimate the probability distributions and spatial correlations in data obtained from the same well, (ii) to evaluate cross-correlations between logs across the two different wells, and (iii) to explore methods for the reconstruction of missing well log data.
With respect to the first objective, the exploratory statistical analysis indicates that the majority of the respective properties do not follow the Gaussian distribution. However, after removing an empirically determined trend function, the residuals are closer to the Gaussian distribution. The spontaneous potential and Gamma radiation indicators can be described by Cauchy and Gumbel distributions, while the induction indicators by means of the Gamma and Weibull distributions. Variogram analysis suggests that spontaneous potential and Gamma Radiation conform to the same type of theoretical variogram model with similar sill and range values.
In reference to the second objective, the statistical analysis indicates weak cross correlations between log data measured at the two different wells. The Gamma radiation logs show both positive and negative cross correlations which are overall higher (in magnitude) than for the respective correlations for the other three logs.
Regarding the third objective, the comparison of the performance of different imputation, interpolation and time series algorithms for gap filling indicates that linear interpolation, linear weighted moving average and less often the Kalman-ARIMA methods are the top-performing algorithms for well log gap filling.ΠΔÏίληÏη: Î ÎΔÏÏÏαÏÎčÏÏÎčÎșÎź ÏαÏÎÏΔÎč ΔÏγαλΔία ÏÏαÏÎčÏÏÎčÎșÎźÏ Î±ÎœÎŹÎ»Ï
ÏÎ·Ï ÎłÎčα ÏηΜ ΌΔλÎÏη ÏÏÏÎčÎșÏÎœ Îź ÏÏÏÎżÏÏÎżÎœÎčÎșÏÎœ ÏÏ
ÏÎčÎșÏÎœ ΌΔÏαÎČληÏÏÎœ. Î ÏÏÎżÏÎγγÎčÏη ÎŒÎčÎ±Ï ÏÏÏÎżÏÏÎżÎœÎčÎșÎźÏ ÎłÎ”ÏÏÏαÏÎčÏÏÎčÎșÎźÏ Î±ÎœÎŹÎ»Ï
ÏÎ·Ï ÏΔ ÎŽÎ”ÎŽÎżÎŒÎΜα Ï
ÎŽÏÎżÎłÎżÎœÎ±ÎœÎžÏÎŹÎșÏÎœ Ïα ÏÏÎżÎčα ÏαÏαÎșÏηÏÎŻÎ¶ÎżÎœÏαÎč αÏÏ Î±ÎœÎżÎŒÎżÎčογÎΜΔÎčα αÏÎżÏΔλΔί αΜÏÎčÎșÎ”ÎŻÎŒÎ”ÎœÎż ÎÏΔÏ
ΜαÏ. ΩÏÏÏÏÎż, ÎŒÎΞοΎοÎč Î±ÎœÎŹÎ»Ï
ÏÎ·Ï ÏÏÎżÎœÎżÏΔÎčÏÏÎœ ÏÎżÏ
ÏΔÏÎčλαΌÎČÎŹÎœÎżÏ
Îœ ÏηΜ ΔÏΔΟΔÏγαÏία ÎŒÎżÎœÎżÎŽÎčÎŹÏÏαÏÏÎœ ÏÏÎżÎœÎčÎșÏÎœ ÎŽÎ”ÎŽÎżÎŒÎÎœÏÎœ, ÎŒÏÎżÏÎżÏÎœ ÎșΏλλÎčÏÏα Μα ΔÏαÏÎŒÎżÏÏÎżÏÎœ ÏΔ
ÏÏÎżÎČÎ»ÎźÎŒÎ±Ïα ÏÎżÏ
αÏÎżÏÎżÏÎœ ÎŒÎżÎœÎżÎŽÎčÎŹÏÏαÏα ÏÏÏÎčÎșÎŹ ÎŽÎ”ÎŽÎżÎŒÎΜα, ÏÏÏÏ ÎłÎčα ÏαÏΏΎΔÎčÎłÎŒÎ± ÎŽÎ”ÎŽÎżÎŒÎΜα ÎŽÎčαγÏαÏÎčÏÎœ αÏÏ ÎłÎ”ÏÏÏÎźÏΔÎčÏ. ΀ÏÏÎż η ΔÏÎčÏÏÎźÎŒÎ· ÏÎ·Ï ÎΔÏÏÏαÏÎčÏÏÎčÎșÎźÏ ÏÏÎż ÎșαÎč η Î±ÎœÎŹÎ»Ï
Ïη ÏÏÎżÎœÎżÏΔÎčÏÏÎœ Î”ÎŻÎœÎ±Îč αΜÏÎčÎșÎ”ÎŻÎŒÎ”ÎœÎ± ΌΔ ΔÏΔÏ
ΜηÏÎčÎșÏ Î”ÎœÎŽÎčαÏÎÏÎżÎœ ÎșαÎč ΔÏαÏÎŒÎżÎłÎÏ ÏΔ ÏολλΏ ΔÏÎčÏÏÎ·ÎŒÎżÎœÎčÎșÎŹ ÏΔΎία, ÏÏÏÏ ÏÏÎżÎœ ÏÎżÎŒÎα ÏÎ·Ï ÎŒÎ”ÏαλλΔÏ
ÏÎčÎșÎźÏ, ÏÎ·Ï ÎŒÎ·ÏαΜÎčÎșÎźÏ ÏΔÏÏΔλαίοÏ
, ÏΔ ÏÎżÎŒÎ”ÎŻÏ ÏΔÏÎčÎČÎ±Î»Î»ÎżÎœÏÎčÎșÏÎœ ΔÏÎčÏÏηΌÏÎœ, ÏÏη ÏηλΔÏÎčÏÎșÏÏηÏη ÎșαÎč ÏηΜ ΔÏÎčÏÏÎźÎŒÎ· ÏÏÎœ Ï
λÎčÎșÏÎœ.
ÎŁÎșÎżÏÏÏ ÏÎ·Ï Î”ÏγαÏÎŻÎ±Ï Î”ÎŻÎœÎ±Îč η ΔÏαÏÎŒÎżÎłÎź γΔÏÏÏαÏÎčÏÏÎčÎșÏÎœ ΌΔΞÏÎŽÏÎœ ÎșαÎč ÎŒÎżÎœÏÎλÏÎœ Î±ÎœÎŹÎ»Ï
ÏÎ·Ï ÏÏÎżÎœÎżÏΔÎčÏÏÎœ ΌΔ ÏÏÏÏÎż ÏηΜ Î±ÎœÎŹÎ»Ï
Ïη ÏÏÎœ ÏÏÏÎčÎșÏÎœ ÏÏ
ÏÏΔÏÎŻÏΔÏÎœ ÎŽÎčαγÏαÏÎčÏÎœ γΔÏÏÏηÏηÏ, ÏÏÏÏ Î”ÏÎŻÏÎ·Ï ÎșαÎč ÏηΜ ÏÏÏÎČλΔÏη (αÏÎżÎșαÏÎŹÏÏαÏη) ÎșΔΜÏÎœ ÎŽÎ”ÎŽÎżÎŒÎÎœÏÎœ (missing data). ΀α ÎșÎ”ÎœÎŹ ÎŽÎ”ÎŽÎżÎŒÎÎœÏÎœ ÏÏÎżÎÏÏÎżÎœÏαÎč ΔίÏΔ αÏÏ Î±ÏÏÎżÏÎŻÎ”Ï Î”ÎŸÎżÏλÎčÏÎŒÎżÏ, ΔίÏΔ αÏÏ ÎŽÏ
ÏλΔÎčÏÎżÏ
Ïγία ÏÏÎœ αÎčÏΞηÏÎźÏÏÎœ, Îź αÎșÏΌη αÏÏ ÏÏÎŹÎ»ÎŒÎ±Ïα ÏÏα ÏÏ
ÏÏÎźÎŒÎ±Ïα "αÏÎżÏÏολΟÏ/Î±ÎœÎŹÎșÏηÏηÏ" ÎŽÎ”ÎŽÎżÎŒÎÎœÏÎœ.
΀α ÏÏÎżÎČÎ»ÎźÎŒÎ±Ïα αÏ
ÏÎŹ ÎŽÏ
ÏÏΔÏÎ±ÎŻÎœÎżÏ
Îœ ÏηΜ ÎŽÎčαΎÎčÎșαÏία ΔÎșÏÎŻÎŒÎ·ÏÎ·Ï ÏÏÎœ γΔÏλογÎčÎșÏÎœ ÏÏηΌαÏÎčÏÎŒÏÎœ αÏÏ ÏÎčÏ ÎŽÎčαγÏαÏίΔÏ. Î ÏαÏÎżÏÏα ΔÏγαÏία ÎłÏÎŹÏÏηÎșΔ ΌΔ ÏηΜ ÏÏοοÏÏÎčÎșÎź ÏÏÎżÏÎγγÎčÏÎ·Ï ÏÏÎœ ÎŽÏÎż ÏαÏαÏÎŹÎœÏ ÎžÎ”ÎŒÎŹÏÏÎœ, ΎηλαΎΟ ÏÎ·Ï Î±ÎœÎŹÎ»Ï
ÏÎ·Ï ÏÏÎœ ÏÏÏÎčÎșÏÎœ ÏÏ
ÏÏΔÏÎŻÏΔÏÎœ ÎșαÎč ÏÎ·Ï Î±ÏÎżÎșαÏÎŹÏÏαÏÎ·Ï ÎșΔΜÏÎœ ÎŽÎ”ÎŽÎżÎŒÎÎœÏÎœ.
Î ÏαÏÎżÏÏα ΔÏγαÏία ΔÏÎčÎșΔΜÏÏÏΜΔÏαÎč ÏÏηΜ Î±ÎœÎŹÎ»Ï
Ïη ÎŽÎčαΞÎÏÎčÎŒÏÎœ ÎŽÎ”ÎŽÎżÎŒÎÎœÏÎœ αÏÏ ÎŽÎčαγÏαÏÎŻÎ”Ï ÏαΌÎčΔÏ
ÏÎźÏÏÎœ Ï
ÎŽÏÎżÎłÎżÎœÎ±ÎœÎžÏÎŹÎșÏÎœ ÏÎżÏ
ÎČÏÎŻÏÎșÎżÎœÏαÎč ÏÏηΜ ÎœÎźÏÎż Labrador ÏÏÎż ÎÏ
ÏÎčÎșÏ Newfoundland (ÎÎ±ÎœÎ±ÎŽÎŹÏ). ΠΌΔλÎÏη ÎČαÏίζΔÏαÎč ÏÏηΜ Î±ÎœÎŹÎ»Ï
Ïη ÏÏÎœ αÎșÏλοÏ
ΞÏÎœ ÏΔÏÏÎŹÏÏÎœ ΔÏÎčÎ»Î”ÎłÎŒÎÎœÏÎœ ÎŽÎčαγÏαÏÎčÏÎœ: ÏÏ
ÏÎčÎșÏ ÎŽÏ
ΜαΌÎčÎșÏ, ΎΔίÎșÏÎ·Ï Î±ÎșÏÎčÎœÎżÎČÎżÎ»ÎŻÎ±Ï ÎłÎŹÎŒÎŒÎ± ÎșαÎč ηλΔÎșÏÏÎżÎŒÎ±ÎłÎœÎ·ÏÎčÎșÎźÏ Î”ÏαγÏÎłÎźÏ Î±ÏÏ ÎΟÎč ÏÏηΌαÏÎčÏÎŒÎżÏÏ ÏÎżÏ
ÎČÏÎŻÏÎșÎżÎœÏαÎč ÏΔ ÎŽÏÎż ΔÏÎŹÎșÏÎčÎ”Ï ÎłÎ”ÏÏÏÎźÏΔÎčÏ, ÎżÎœÏΌαÏÎč Finnegan ÎșαÎč Seamus. ÎÎč ÎŽÏÎż γΔÏÏÏÎźÏΔÎčÏ ÎČÏÎŻÏÎșÎżÎœÏαÎč ÏΔ αÏÏÏÏαÏη 14.5 ÏλΌ ΌΔÏÎ±ÎŸÏ ÏÎżÏ
Ï. ÎΜαλÏ
ÏÎčÎșÏÏΔÏα, ÎżÎč Ï
ÏÏ ÎŒÎ”Î»ÎÏη ÏÏηΌαÏÎčÏÎŒÎżÎŻ ÏÎ·Ï ÎłÎ”ÏÏÏηÏÎ·Ï Finnegan Î”ÎŻÎœÎ±Îč ÎżÎč αÎșÏλοÏ
ΞοÎč: Goose
(American) Tickle ΌΔ 1422 ÎŽÎ”ÎŽÎżÎŒÎΜα, Table Point ΌΔ 725 ÎŽÎ”ÎŽÎżÎŒÎΜα, Aguathuna ΌΔ 250 ÎŽÎ”ÎŽÎżÎŒÎΜα, Catoche ΌΔ 624 ÎŽÎ”ÎŽÎżÎŒÎΜα, Boat Harbour ΌΔ 599 ÎŽÎ”ÎŽÎżÎŒÎΜα, ÎșαÎč Watts Bight ΌΔ 349 ÎŽÎ”ÎŽÎżÎŒÎΜα. ÎÎœÏÎŻÏÏÎżÎčÏα, ÎżÎč Ï
ÏÏ ÎŒÎ”Î»ÎÏη ÏÏηΌαÏÎčÏÎŒÎżÎŻ ÏÎ·Ï ÎłÎ”ÏÏÏηÏÎ·Ï Seamus Î”ÎŻÎœÎ±Îč ÎżÎč αÎșÏλοÏ
ΞοÎč: Goose (American) Tickle ΌΔ 1700 ÎŽÎ”ÎŽÎżÎŒÎΜα, Table Point ΌΔ 871 ÎŽÎ”ÎŽÎżÎŒÎΜα, Aguathuna ΌΔ 347 ÎŽÎ”ÎŽÎżÎŒÎΜα, Catoche ΌΔ 721 ÎŽÎ”ÎŽÎżÎŒÎΜα, Boat Harbour ΌΔ 819 ÎŽÎ”ÎŽÎżÎŒÎΜα, ÎșαÎč Watts Bight ΌΔ 406 ÎŽÎ”ÎŽÎżÎŒÎΜα.
Î ÏÏ
ÎłÎșΔÎșÏÎčÎŒÎΜη ΌΔλÎÏη ΔÏÏÎčΏζΔÎč ÏΔ ÏÏία ÎșÏÏÎčα ÏÎ·ÎŒÎ”ÎŻÎ± ΔΜΎÎčαÏÎÏÎżÎœÏÎżÏ: (i) ΔÎșÏÎŻÎŒÎ·Ïη
ÏÏÏÎčÎșÏÎœ ÏÏ
ÏÏΔÏÎŻÏΔÏÎœ αÏÏ ÎŽÎčαγÏαÏÎŻÎ”Ï ÏÎżÏ
λαΌÎČÎŹÎœÎżÎœÏαÎč αÏÏ ÏηΜ ÎŻÎŽÎčα γΔÏÏÏηÏη, (ii) ΔÎșÏÎŻÎŒÎ·Ïη ÏÎ·Ï Î”ÏΔÏÎżÏÏ
ÏÏÎÏÎčÏÎ·Ï ÎŒÎ”ÏÎ±ÎŸÏ ÏÏÎœ ΌΔÏÏÎźÏΔÏÎœ ÏÏÎœ ÎŻÎŽÎčÏÎœ ÏÏ
ÏÎčÎșÏÎœ ÎčÎŽÎčÎżÏÎźÏÏÎœ αÏÏ ÎŽÏÎż ÎŽÎčαÏÎżÏΔÏÎčÎșÎÏ ÎłÎ”ÏÏÏÎźÏΔÎčÏ, (iii) ÎŽÎčΔÏΔÏΜηÏη ΌΔΞÏÎŽÏÎœ ÎłÎčα ÏηΜ αΜαÎșαÏαÏÎșΔÏ
Îź ÎșΔΜÏÎœ ÎŽÎ”ÎŽÎżÎŒÎÎœÏÎœ.
ÎÎčα ÏÎżÎœ ÏÏÏÏÎż ÏÏÏÏÎż, ÏÏÎżÏÎŽÎčÎżÏÎŻÏαΌΔ ÏÎżÏ
Ï ÎŽÎčÎŹÏÎżÏÎżÏ
Ï ÎłÎ”ÏλογÎčÎșÎżÏÏ ÏÏηΌαÏÎčÏÎŒÎżÏÏ ÏÏα ÏÎ·ÎŒÎ”ÎŻÎ± ÏÏÎœ γΔÏÏÏÎźÏΔÏÎœ. ÎÏαÏÎŒÏÏαΌΔ ÎŽÎčΔÏΔÏ
ΜηÏÎčÎșÎź ÏÏαÏÎčÏÏÎčÎșÎź Î±ÎœÎŹÎ»Ï
Ïη ÎŽÎ”ÎŽÎżÎŒÎÎœÏÎœ ÎłÎčα Μα ÏÏÎżÏÎŽÎčÎżÏÎčÏÏÎżÏÎœ ÎżÎč ÎșαÏÎ±ÎœÎżÎŒÎÏ ÏÎčΞαΜÏÏηÏÎ±Ï ÎșΏΞΔ ÎŽÎčαγÏαÏÎŻÎ±Ï Î±ÎœÎŹ ÏÏηΌαÏÎčÏÎŒÏ, ÏÏÏÏ Î”ÏÎŻÏÎ·Ï ÎșαÎč ÎłÎčα Μα ÏÏÎżÏÎŽÎčÎżÏÎčÏÏÎżÏÎœ Ïα ÎČÎλÏÎčÏÏα ÎŒÎżÎœÏÎλα ÎČαÏÎčογÏÎ±ÎŒÎŒÎŹÏÏÎœ Î±ÎœÎŹ ÎŽÎčαγÏαÏία.
ÎÎčα ÏÎżÎœ ΎΔÏÏΔÏÎż ÏÏÏÏÎż ÏÏηÏÎčÎŒÎżÏÎżÎčÎźÏαΌΔ ΌΔΞÏÎŽÎżÏ
Ï ÏαÏΔΌÎČÎżÎ»ÎźÏ ÎŒÎ” ÏÎșÎżÏÏ ÎœÎ± ΎηΌÎčÎżÏ
ÏγΟÏÎżÏ
ΌΔ ÎŽÏÎż ΔÏ
ΞÏ
ÎłÏαΌΌÎčÏÎŒÎΜα ÏÏÎœÎżÎ»Î± ÎŽÎ”ÎŽÎżÎŒÎÎœÏÎœ ΌΔ ÎșÎżÎčÎœÏ ÎČÎźÎŒÎ± ΎΔÎčÎłÎŒÎ±ÏοληÏίαÏ. ÎÏ
ÏÎź η ÎŽÎčαΎÎčÎșαÏία ÎșÏίΞηÎșΔ αÏαÏαίÏηÏη ÎŽÎčÏÏÎč ÎŽÎčαÏÎżÏΔÏÎčÎșοί ÏÏηΌαÏÎčÏÎŒÎżÎŻ ÎČÏÎŻÏÎșÎżÎœÏαÎč ÏΔ ÎŽÎčαÏÎżÏΔÏÎčÎșÎŹ ÎČΏΞη ÎșαÏÎŹ ÎŒÎźÎșÎżÏ ÏÎ·Ï ÎșΏΞΔ γΔÏÏÏηÏηÏ, Î”ÎœÏ ÏÎż ÎČÎźÎŒÎ± ΎΔÎčÎłÎŒÎ±ÏοληÏÎŻÎ±Ï ÎŽÎčαÏÎÏΔÎč ΌΔÏÎ±ÎŸÏ ÏÏÎœ γΔÏÏÏÎźÏΔÏÎœ. ÎÎœ ÏÏ
ΜΔÏΔία ÏÏ
ÎłÎșÏÎŻÎœÎ±ÎŒÎ” Ïα αÏÎżÏΔλÎÏΌαÏα ÏÏÎœ ÏÎčÎŒÏÎœ ÏÏÎœ ÎŽÎčÎŹÏÎżÏÏÎœ ΌΔΞÏÎŽÏÎœ ÏαÏΔΌÎČÎżÎ»ÎźÏ ÏÎżÏ
ΔÏαÏÎŒÏÏÏηÎșαΜ ÎłÎčα ÏÎżÎœ Ï
ÏολογÎčÏÎŒÏ ÏÎ·Ï Î”ÏΔÏÎżÏÏ
ÏÏÎÏÎčÏÎ·Ï ÏÏÎœ γΔÏÏÏÎźÏΔÏÎœ.
ÎÎč ÎŒÎΞοΎοÎč αÏ
Ïοί ÏΔÏÎčλαΌÎČÎŹÎœÎżÏ
Îœ ÏηΜ ÎłÏαΌΌÎčÎșÎź ÏαÏΔΌÎČολΟ, ÏηΜ ÎșÏ
ÎČÎčÎșÎź ÏαÏΔΌÎČολΟ, ÏηΜ ÏαÏΔΌÎČολΟ ÏÏÎ·ÎœÎżÎ”ÎčÎŽÏÎœ ÏÏ
ΜαÏÏÎźÏΔÏÎœ (splines) ÏÏÏÏ Î”ÏÎŻÏÎ·Ï ÎșαÎč ÏηΜ ÏΔÏÎœÎčÎșÎź ÏÎżÏ
ÎșÎżÎœÏÎčÎœÏÏΔÏÎżÏ
γΔίÏÎżÎœÎ±.
Î ÏÏÎŻÏÎżÏ ÏÏÏÏÎżÏ Î±ÏÎżÏÎșÎżÏΔί ÏÏηΜ ÎŽÎčΔÏΔÏΜηÏη ÏÏÎœ ΔÏαÏÎŒÎżÎłÏÎœ ÏÎ·Ï Î±ÎœÎŹÎ»Ï
ÏÎ·Ï ÏÏÎżÎœÎżÏΔÎčÏÏÎœ ÏÏηΜ ΔÎșÏÎŻÎŒÎ·Ïη ÎșΔΜÏÎœ ÎŽÎ”ÎŽÎżÎŒÎÎœÏÎœ ÎŽÎčαγÏαÏÎčÏÎœ. ΀α ÎŒÎżÎœÏÎλα αΜÏÎčÎșαÏÎŹÏÏαÏÎ·Ï (imputation) ÎșαÎč ÏαÏΔΌÎČÎżÎ»ÎźÏ ÏÏηÏÎčÎŒÎżÏÎżÎčÎżÏÎœÏαÎč ÏÏ
ÎœÎźÎžÏÏ ÎłÎčα Μα ÏληÏÏÏÎżÏ
Îœ ÎșÎ”ÎœÎŹ ÎŽÎ”ÎŽÎżÎŒÎÎœÏÎœ ÏΔ ÎŽÎčαγÏαÏÎŻÎ”Ï ÎłÎ”ÏÏÏÎźÏΔÏÎœ. ÎÎčα ÏÎżÎœ Ï
ÏολογÎčÏÎŒÏ ÏÎ·Ï Î±ÏÏÎŽÎżÏÎ·Ï ÏÏÎœ ÎŽÎčÎŹÏÎżÏÏÎœ ΌΔΞÏÎŽÏÎœ, ÎżÎč ÎșαÏαγΔγÏαΌΌÎÎœÎ”Ï ÎŽÎčαγÏαÏÎŻÎ”Ï ÎŽÎčαÏÏÏÎŻÎ¶ÎżÎœÏαÎč ÏΔ ÎŽÏÎż ÎŽÎčαÎșÏÎčÏÎŹ ÏÏÎœÎżÎ»Î±: ÏÎż ÏÏÎœÎżÎ»Îż ΔÎșÏαίΎΔÏ
ÏÎ·Ï (ÎżÎč ÏÎčÎŒÎÏ ÏÏÎœ ÎŽÎčαγÏαÏÎčÏÎœ ÏΔ αÏ
ÏÏ ÏÎż ÏÏÎœÎżÎ»Îż ΞΔÏÏÎżÏÎœÏαÎč ÎłÎœÏÏÏÎÏ) ÎșαÎč ÏÎż ÏÏÎœÎżÎ»Îż ΔλÎÎłÏÎżÏ
(ÏÏÎżÏ
ÎżÎč ÏÎčÎŒÎÏ ÏÏÎœ ÎŽÎčαγÏαÏÎčÏÎœ ΞΔÏÏÎżÏÎœÏαÎč ÎŹÎłÎœÏÏÏΔÏ). Î ÏÏ
ÎŒÏλΟÏÏÏη ÏÏÎœ ÎșΔΜÏÎœ ÎÎłÎčΜΔ ΌΔ ÏηΜ
ÏÏÎźÏη ÏÏÎœ ΌΔΞÏÎŽÏÎœ αΜÏÎčÎșαÏÎŹÏÏαÏηÏ, ÏαÏΔΌÎČÎżÎ»ÎźÏ ÎșαÎč ÏÏÎżÎœÎżÏΔÎčÏÏÎœ. ÎÎč ÎŒÎΞοΎοÎč ÏΔÏÎčλαΌÎČÎŹÎœÎżÏ
Îœ ÏηΜ Kalman Arima, ÏηΜ ÎŒÎΞοΎο ÎŒÎÏÎż ÏÏÎżÏ
, ÏηΜ ÎłÏαΌΌÎčÎșÎź ÏαÏΔΌÎČολΟ ÎșαÎč ÏηΜ ÏαÏΔΌÎČολΟ ÏÏÎ·ÎœÎżÎ”ÎčÎŽÏÎœ ÏÏ
ΜαÏÏÎźÏΔÏÎœ (Spline) ÏÏÏÏ Î”ÏÎŻÏÎ·Ï ÎșαÎč ÏÎżÎœ αÏλÏÏ ÎșÎčÎœÎżÏÎŒÎ”ÎœÎż ÎŒÎÏÎż ÏÏÎż, ÎșαÎč ÏÎżÎœ ζÏ
ÎłÎčÏÎŒÎÎœÎż ÎșÎčΜηÏÏ ÎŒÎÏÎż ÏÏÎż. ΠαÎșÏÎŻÎČΔÎčα ÏÎ·Ï ÏÏÏÎČλΔÏÎ·Ï ÎČαÏÎŻÏÏηÎșΔ ÏÏηΜ αÏÏÏÏαÏη Î±ÎœÎŹÎŒÎ”Ïα ÏÏα αÏ
ΞΔΜÏÎčÎșÎŹ ÎŽÎ”ÎŽÎżÎŒÎΜα ÎșαÎč ÏÏÎčÏ Î”ÎșÏÎčÎŒÎźÏΔÎčÏ ÎŒÎÏÏ ÏÏÎœ ΌΔΞÏÎŽÏÎœ αΜÏÎčÎșαÏÎŹÏÏαÏηÏ, ÏαÏΔΌÎČÎżÎ»ÎźÏ Îź ÏÏÎżÎœÎżÏΔÎčÏÏÎœ.
ÎŁÏΔÏÎčÎșÎŹ ΌΔ ÏÎżÎœ ÏÏÏÏÎż ÏÏÏÏÎż ÏÎ·Ï Î”ÏγαÏίαÏ, η ÎŽÎčΔÏΔÏ
ΜηÏÎčÎșÎź Î±ÎœÎŹÎ»Ï
Ïη ÎΎΔÎčΟΔ ÏÏÎč η ÏλΔÎčÎżÏηÏία ÏÏÎœ ΌΔÏÏÎżÏΌΔΜÏÎœ ÎčÎŽÎčÎżÏÎźÏÏÎœ ΎΔΜ αÎșολοÏ
ΞΔί ÏηΜ ÎÎșαοÏ
ÏÏÎčÎ±ÎœÎź ÎșαÏÎ±ÎœÎżÎŒÎź ÏÎčΞαΜÏÏηÏαÏ.
ΣΔ αÏ
ÏÎÏ ÏÎčÏ ÏΔÏÎčÏÏÏÏΔÎčÏ, ÎșαÏÏÏÎčÎœ αÏαίÏΔÏÎ·Ï ÎŒÎčÎ±Ï ÏÏ
ÎœÎŹÏÏηÏÎ·Ï ÏÎŹÏÎ·Ï Ïα ÏÏαÏÎčÏÏÎčÎșÎŹ Ï
ÏÏλοÎčÏα ÎČÏÎŻÏÎșÎżÎœÏαÎč ÏÎčÎż ÎșÎżÎœÏÎŹ ÏÏηΜ ÎÎșαοÏ
ÏÎčÎ±ÎœÎź ÎșαÏÎ±ÎœÎżÎŒÎź. ΀α αÏÎżÏΔλÎÏΌαÏα ÏÎ·Ï ÎŒÎ”Î»ÎÏÎ·Ï Î±ÏοΎΔÎčÎșÎœÏÎżÏ
Îœ ÏÏÎč ÎżÎč ÎŽÎčαγÏαÏÎŻÎ”Ï ÏÏ
ÏÎčÎșÎżÏ ÎŽÏ
ΜαΌÎčÎșÎżÏ ÎșαÎč ÎŽÎčÎŹÏÎ±ÎŸÎ·Ï Î±ÎșÏÎčÎœÎżÎČÎżÎ»ÎŻÎ±Ï ÎłÎŹÎŒÎŒÎ± ÏΔÏÎčÎłÏÎŹÏÎżÎœÏαÎč ÎșαλÏÏΔÏα αÏÏ ÎșαÏÎ±ÎœÎżÎŒÎÏ ÏÎčΞαΜÏÏηÏÎ±Ï ÏÎżÏ
ÎżÏÎŻÎ¶ÎżÎœÏαÎč ÏΔ Ïλο ÏÎż ÏΔΎίο ÏÏÎœ ÏÏÎ±ÎłÎŒÎ±ÏÎčÎșÏÎœ ÏÎčÎŒÏÎœ, ÏÏÏÏ ÎżÎč ÎșαÏÎ±ÎœÎżÎŒÎÏ Cauchy ÎșαÎč Gumbel. ÎÎœÏίΞΔÏα, ÎżÎč ÎŽÎčαγÏαÏÎŻÎ”Ï Î”ÏαγÏÎłÎźÏ ÏΔÏÎčÎłÏÎŹÏÎżÎœÏαÎč ÎșαλÏÏΔÏα αÏÏ ÎșαÏÎ±ÎœÎżÎŒÎÏ ÏÎżÏ
ÎżÏÎŻÎ¶ÎżÎœÏαÎč ÏÏÎż ÏÏÎœÎżÎ»Îż ÏÏÎœ ΞΔÏÎčÎșÏÎœ αÏÎčΞΌÏÎœ ÏÏÏÏ ÎżÎč ÎșαÏÎ±ÎœÎżÎŒÎÏ ÎÎŹÎŒÎŒÎ± ÎșαÎč Weibull. ΀α αÏÎżÏΔλÎÏΌαÏα ÏÎ·Ï Î±ÎœÎŹÎ»Ï
ÏÎ·Ï ÏÏÎœ ÎČαÏÎčογÏÎ±ÎŒÎŒÎŹÏÏÎœ ÎΎΔÎčΟαΜ ÏÏÎč ÎżÎč ÎŽÎčαγÏαÏÎŻÎ”Ï ÏÏ
ÏÎčÎșÎżÏ ÎŽÏ
ΜαΌÎčÎșÎżÏ ÎșαÎč ÎŽÎčÎŹÏÎ±ÎŸÎ·Ï Î±ÎșÏÎčÎœÎżÎČÎżÎ»ÎŻÎ±Ï ÎłÎŹÎŒÎŒÎ±, ÏολÏ
ÏÏ
ÏÎœÎŹ ÏÏÎżÏαÏÎŒÏÎ¶ÎżÎœÏαÎč ÏÏÎż ÎŻÎŽÎčÎż ΞΔÏÏηÏÎčÎșÏ ÎŒÎżÎœÏÎλο ÎČαÏÎčογÏÎŹÎŒÎŒÎ±ÏÎżÏ ÎșαÎč αÏ
ÏÏ ÎżÏΔίλΔÏαÎč ÏÏÎż ÎłÎ”ÎłÎżÎœÏÏ ÏÏÎč ÎżÎč ÏÎčÎŒÎÏ ÏÎ·Ï ÎżÏÎżÏÎźÏ ÎșαÎč ÏÎ·Ï Î¶ÏΜη ΔÏÎčÏÏÎżÎźÏ Î”ÎŻÎœÎ±Îč ÏαÏÏÎŒÎżÎčΔÏ. Î Î±ÎœÎŹÎ»Ï
Ïη ÎČαÏÎčογÏÎŹÎŒÎŒÎ±ÏÎżÏ Î”ÏÎčÎČΔÎČαÎčÏΜΔÎč ÏηΜ Ï
ÏηλΟ ÏÏÏÎčÎșÎź ΔÏΔÏογÎΜΔÎčα ÏÎżÏ
ÏαÏαÎșÏηÏίζΔÎč ÏÎčÏ ÎșαÏαγÏαÏÎÏ ÎŽÎčαγÏαÏÎčÏÎœ.
ÎÏÎżÎœ αÏÎżÏÎŹ ÏÏÎż ΎΔÏÏΔÏÎż ÏÏÏÏÎż ÏÎ·Ï Î”ÏγαÏίαÏ, Ïα αÏÎčΞΌηÏÎčÎșÎŹ αÏÎżÏΔλÎÏΌαÏα ÏÎ·Ï ÏÏαÏÎčÏÏÎčÎșÎźÏ Î±ÎœÎŹÎ»Ï
ÏÎ·Ï ÎΎΔÎčΟαΜ αÏÎžÎ”ÎœÎź ΔÏΔÏÎżÏÏ
ÏÏÎÏÎčÏη ΌΔÏÎ±ÎŸÏ ÏÏÎœ ÎčÎŽÎčÎżÏÎźÏÏÎœ ÏÎżÏ
ΌΔÏÏΟΞηÎșαΜ ÏÏÎčÏ ÎŽÏÎż γΔÏÏÏÎźÏΔÎčÏ. ΠΔÏΔÏÎżÏÏ
ÏÏÎÏÎčÏη ΔΟΔÏÎŹÏÏηÎșΔ ÎŒÎÏÏ ÏÎżÏ
Ï
ÏολογÎčÏÎŒÎżÏ ÎŒÎÏÏÏÎœ ÏÏαÏÎčÏÏÎčÎșÎźÏ Î”ÎŸÎŹÏÏηÏÎ·Ï ÏÏÏÏ Î· ÏÏ
ÏÏÎÏÎčÏη Pearson ÎșαÎč η ÏÏ
ÏÏÎÏÎčÏη Spearman. ÎÏÏÏ Î±ÎœÎ±ÏÎÏΞηÎșΔ αΜÏÏÎÏÏ, ÎłÎčα ÏÎżÎœ Ï
ÏολογÎčÏÎŒÏ ÏÏÎœ ΔÏΔÏÎżÏÏ
ÏÏΔÏÎŻÏΔÏÎœ ÏÏηÏÎčÎŒÎżÏÎżÎčΟΞηÎșαΜ ÎŒÎΞοΎοÎč ÏαÏΔΌÎČÎżÎ»ÎźÏ ÎŒÎ” ÏÎșÎżÏÏ ÏηΜ ÎżÎŒÎżÎłÎ”ÎœÎżÏοίηÏη ÏÎżÏ
ÎČÎźÎŒÎ±ÏÎżÏ ÎŽÎ”ÎčÎłÎŒÎ±ÏοληÏίαÏ. ÎÎ»Î”Ï ÎżÎč ÎŒÎΞοΎοÎč οΎΟγηÏαΜ ÏΔ ÏαÏÏÎŒÎżÎčÎ”Ï Î”ÎșÏÎčÎŒÎźÏΔÎčÏ ÏÏÎœ ÏÏ
ÏÏΔÏÎŻÏΔÏÎœ. ÎÎč ÎŽÎčαγÏαÏÎŻÎ”Ï ÎŽÎčÎŹÏÎ±ÎŸÎ·Ï Î±ÎșÏÎŻÎœÏÎœ ÎłÎŹÎŒÎŒÎ± αÏÎÎŽÏÏαΜ ÏÎż ÏÎčÎż ΔΜΎÎčαÏÎÏÎżÎœÏα αÏÎżÏΔλÎÏΌαÏα ÏΔ ÏÏÎÏη ΌΔ ÏÎčÏ Ï
ÏÏλοÎčÏÎ”Ï ÎŽÎčαγÏαÏίΔÏ, ÏαÏÎżÏ
ÏÎčÎŹÎ¶ÎżÎœÏÎ±Ï ÏÏÏÎż ΞΔÏÎčÎșÎÏ ÏÏÎż ÎșαÎč αÏΜηÏÎčÎșÎÏ ÏÎčÎŒÎÏ ÏÏ
ÏÏΔÏÎŻÏΔÏÎœ. ÎÎč ÏÎčÎŒÎÏ ÏÏÎœ ΞΔÏÎčÎșÏÎœ ÏÏ
ÎœÏΔλΔÏÏÏÎœ ÏÏ
ÏÏÎÏÎčÏÎ·Ï ÎșÏ
ÎŒÎ±ÎŻÎœÎżÎœÏαÎč αÏÏ 0.001 ÎÏÏ 0.483, Î”ÎœÏ ÎżÎč ÏÎčÎŒÎÏ ÏÏÎœ αÏΜηÏÎčÎșÏÎœ ÏÏ
ÎœÏΔλΔÏÏÏÎœ ÏÏ
ÏÏÎÏÎčÏÎ·Ï Î”ÎșÏÎ”ÎŻÎœÎżÎœÏαÎč αÏÏ -0.142 ÎÏÏ -0.001.
ÎΜαÏÎżÏÎčÎșÎŹ ΌΔ ÏÎżÎœ ÏÏÎŻÏÎż ÏÏÏÏÎż ÏÎ·Ï Î”ÏγαÏίαÏ, η ÏÏÎłÎșÏÎčÏη ÎșαÎč η ÏÎżÏÎżÏÎčÎșÎżÏοίηÏη ÏηÏ
αÏÏÎŽÎżÏÎ·Ï ÏÏÎœ αλγοÏÎŻÎžÎŒÏÎœ αΜÏÎčÎșαÏÎŹÏÏαÏÎ·Ï ÎșαÎč ÏαÏΔΌÎČÎżÎ»ÎźÏ ÎΎΔÎčΟΔ ÏÏÎč η ÎłÏαΌΌÎčÎșÎź ÏαÏΔΌÎČολΟ, Îż ζÏ
ÎłÎčÏÎŒÎÎœÎżÏ ÎŒÎÏÎżÏ ÏÏÎżÏ, ÎșαÎč λÎčÎłÏÏΔÏÎż ÏÏ
ÏÎœÎŹ η ÎŒÎÎžÎżÎŽÎżÏ Kalman-Arima, Î”ÎŻÎœÎ±Îč Ïα ÏÎčÎż αÏοΎοÏÎčÎșÎŹ ÎŒÎżÎœÏÎλα αÏÎżÎșαÏÎŹÏÏαÏÎ·Ï ÎșΔΜÏÎœ ÎŽÎ”ÎŽÎżÎŒÎÎœÏÎœ
Evaluation of a quality improvement intervention to reduce anastomotic leak following right colectomy (EAGLE): pragmatic, batched stepped-wedge, cluster-randomized trial in 64 countries
Background
Anastomotic leak affects 8 per cent of patients after right colectomy with a 10-fold increased risk of postoperative death. The EAGLE study aimed to develop and test whether an international, standardized quality improvement intervention could reduce anastomotic leaks.
Methods
The internationally intended protocol, iteratively co-developed by a multistage Delphi process, comprised an online educational module introducing risk stratification, an intraoperative checklist, and harmonized surgical techniques. Clusters (hospital teams) were randomized to one of three arms with varied sequences of intervention/data collection by a derived stepped-wedge batch design (at least 18 hospital teams per batch). Patients were blinded to the study allocation. Low- and middle-income country enrolment was encouraged. The primary outcome (assessed by intention to treat) was anastomotic leak rate, and subgroup analyses by module completion (at least 80 per cent of surgeons, high engagement; less than 50 per cent, low engagement) were preplanned.
Results
A total 355 hospital teams registered, with 332 from 64 countries (39.2 per cent low and middle income) included in the final analysis. The online modules were completed by half of the surgeons (2143 of 4411). The primary analysis included 3039 of the 3268 patients recruited (206 patients had no anastomosis and 23 were lost to follow-up), with anastomotic leaks arising before and after the intervention in 10.1 and 9.6 per cent respectively (adjusted OR 0.87, 95 per cent c.i. 0.59 to 1.30; P = 0.498). The proportion of surgeons completing the educational modules was an influence: the leak rate decreased from 12.2 per cent (61 of 500) before intervention to 5.1 per cent (24 of 473) after intervention in high-engagement centres (adjusted OR 0.36, 0.20 to 0.64; P < 0.001), but this was not observed in low-engagement hospitals (8.3 per cent (59 of 714) and 13.8 per cent (61 of 443) respectively; adjusted OR 2.09, 1.31 to 3.31).
Conclusion
Completion of globally available digital training by engaged teams can alter anastomotic leak rates. Registration number: NCT04270721 (http://www.clinicaltrials.gov)